I have no idea what the first term of a President Trump would be like. When I say “no idea”, I mean I have absolutely no idea. He’s a cipher as far as I’m concerned.
Oddly and despite her being one of the most known quantities in politics today, I only have the fuzziest notion of what President Hillary Clinton’s first term would be like.
So, help me out here. Describe President Hillary Clinton’s first term. Show your work.
She’d probably focus on public service initiatives. Pamphlets and Short Tutorials. Educational stuff.
“Survival Skills – How to Avoid Sniper Fire at Public Events”. “Better than Pyramid Marketing: Cattle Futures Trading for Novices” “Own And Operate Your Own Home MicroBrewery……..and Email Server”. “The Carbonaro Effect: Teleportation of Billing Records”. “Leadership – What I Learned About Crowd Control Through YouTube Videos” “Saving for Retirement – Speak to Goldman and Make Millions”. And of course, “Debating for Beginners – Fool the a Dimwit Next a Door with Vast Right Wing Conspiracy Claims”.
I think it’s been in the papers…..
Sadly, none of us has a champion, only sharp pretenders angling for their own benefit. Wish I had more to add.
I think it depends massively on what sort of Congress she has to work with. Taking a likely middle ground, if the D’s take 1-2 seat control of the Senate, and take 10-15 seats in the House (leaving the R’s with a 15-20 seat majority), and if Ryan governs the way Boehner did, making deals with the Democrats to get things passed, we are in for another era of small ball. Likely the biggest event would be modest immigration reform along the lines of the bill that passed the Senate a few years ago. I think legislation to fill the gaps in Obamacare or substantial tax reform is a bridge too far. Even so, it is possible she loses the Senate at the 2018 mid-terms and plays defense like Obama did.
If the predictions of Trump pulling down Republican turnout are accurate, and Hillary has a Democratic House to work with for the first 2 years, though, all bets are off.
I see Hillary as the calming interlude. I realize the country is supposed to be angry, but about half that anger is bogus, the results mostly of rightwing and some leftwing agitprop. I’m sorry, but you do not launch a revolution because salaries are flat and you don’t like your health plan. This is closer to mass hysteria than anything.
It’s an especially good idea to chill and calm the hell down when it’s quite clear that no one on either side has the first clue what to do. When you don’t know what to do, consider doing nothing and waiting until the situation clarifies. I think that’s where about 60% of people are.
So, I think Hillary would be the third Obama term. And since, right now, Obama would handily beat either Clinton or Trump, I think that’s what we need and, despite all the noise, what the majority wants.
Here’s my work:
1) The person with the most votes so far, on either side, and by a wide margin, is Hillary Clinton.
2) Despite not being loved.
3) And she wins every head-to-head against Trump or Cruz.
4) And it’s not because she’s charming, or exciting, or the latest thing.
5) Obama’s popularity is in positive territory, and she is clearly his heir.
Put it all together, and I think right now most people want an end to all the yelling, and they don’t like either the fascist or the communist options on offer, so they’ll kick the can down the road. I think given everything, most people will choose more of the same, and that’s what Hillary will deliver.
Either the FBI or ISIS may derail Hillary, but right now she’s solidly in the lead. With that annoying voice, Benghazi, Monica Lewinsky, Goldman Sachs, and getting hammered from all sides at once, she is still by far the most popular of the five people still in this race.
A mildly more aggressive foreign policy than we have now, but no huge changes. Mostly just a solidification of what Obama changed, so it is the new status quo.
On the other hand, she starts with a lot less respect for congress, or assumption of their goodwill — so less pre-compromising and more of the aggressive use of executive orders.
It will mostly be gridlock since the GOP will retain at least the House. They will react with anger claiming another election was somehow stolen, or that they still need to run a true conservative. Congress will concentrate on trying to get her prosecuted for the emails, Benghazi or something (See Clinton I). Hillary won’t be able to get even one budget passed. No new domestic initiatives will be passed (see Obama post-2010).
On the foreign policy side she may be able to achieve bipartisan support for starting a war somewhere in response to a minor attack in the US somewhere. This may make her popular enough for a second term, but it will depend upon timing. (See Bush I)
Steve
Forgot. If she gets elected plan on having 8 justices on SCOTUS for a long time, maybe even for the 4 years of her presidency.
Steve
I predict it will be like a third Obama term except that any critics of the administration will be labelled as misogynists instead of racists.
I don’t think that dog will hunt. There hasn’t been much reluctance to criticize her so far (except among a few journalists) and there are a lot more women journalists than there are black journalists.
Nice tongue-in-cheek analysis, Drew!
CStanley — you’re spot on. As for the criticism Hillary has already weathered, Dave, there remains a dog hunting in there somewhere — should she become POTUS — as future disagreements will fall more readily under claims of gender discrimination than it ever did before during her time in the public limelight.
Regarding other aspects to anticipate from an HRC presidency: 1) there will continue to be misconduct and quid pro quo allegations/rumors swirling around her tenure in office; 2) the deficit/debt will mount even higher; 3) older justices will retire from the high court and be replaced with a social progressive interpretation of constitutional powers etc; 4) dependency on central government, coupled with greater softness/resignation in the populace, to handle their own problems/lifestyle choices, will grow; 5) Obamacare will continue to deteriorate causing a replacement in the mold of single payer; 6) if the GOP controls any branch of Congress, their participation will be in the whining mode rather than being legislatively potent or healthy obstructionists, as the EO precedent (under Obama) has yielded greater power to the executive branch of government; 7) and, with the extension, validation and ultimate success of identity politics, this country will become even more divided and polarized along ethic, gender and class lines. Expect university “safe spaces” to become an annoying norm.
United we stand. Divided we fall. I think this is our future under social progressive candidates — HRC being one of those — from their near sighted, damaging but election-winning policies.
There is an interesting Rasmussen poll for those who might be count their chickens.
For those who are still wondering about the Trump supporters V has a good article: Trump: Something New under the Political Sun
My favorite was a quote from his friend:
Let me help the haters. You can save your time and energy. Everybody is a racist, homophobe, misogynist, and any other *.ist you can dream up. Big f’ing whoop. You are yesterday’s fish head soup, and you smell as bad.
Oh, Tasty, I don’t need your sad, revealing rant to know what you and the bulk of your party are. I’ve always known. You’re a natural kapo, Tasty, and you’ve found your Fuhrer at last.
Michael…just like your particular “fuhrer” was Obama. He was seen as a Messiah of sorts, back in ’08, and his faux pas have been either overlooked or dismissed ever since.
@michael reynolds
Blah, blah, blah. Everybody is a racist except for you, and you just happen to live the racist lifestyle. Oh wait, I remember. You acknowledged your white privilege, and that gives you the right to be a lifestyle racist.
Let me help everybody out. These lifestyle racists hate Trump because they fear he is going to spoil the good thing they have going. “First, he will let in the white trash and, then, the g_d damn n*gg*rs.”
I pretty much see things as Steve does, with one exception. Justice Ginsburg is likely to retire in the next four years, and after that we’ll have a 7-person Supreme Court which votes the way Republicans want it to do.
1) No fly-zone in Syria
2) Large spending on training and equiping “rebels”
3) Rapid militarization of Eastern Europe
4) Request for larger military budgets
5) Greater politicization of Justice Department, Treasury, SEC and other financial regulatory agencies and offices.
6) Ending pre-existing condition coverage of ACA.
7) Insubstantial “reforms” of incarceration policies and expansion of for-profit prison industry contracts.
8) Support for legislation blocking states from adoption of single-payer.
9) Backdoor efforts to pass TPP and TTIP buried in other legislation.
That’s a pretty ambitious list, Ben. Not that I’d agree with most of it but it’s pretty ambitious.
Let me try attacking the question from another angle. In what ways will the Bill Clinton presidency be a model for a Hillary Clinton presidency? In what ways won’t it be? Same questions for the Obama presidency.
Dave, I don’t find it ambitious in that these are all areas where wishes of Clinton, Democratic leadership, Clinton donors and Republican leadership converge. That’s what she means by “getting things done.”
I think she’ll be far more militaristic than Obama and considerably moreso than her husband. She’ll fail more than her husband did because she doesn’t learn from mistakes and isn’t a gifted politician as he once was.
“Forgot. If she gets elected plan on having 8 justices on SCOTUS for a long time, maybe even for the 4 years of her presidency.”
I’m not so sure. I think there’s a decent chance that if she gets elected Obama’s choice will be confirmed in the lame-duck session.
I like Ben’s list except I would add something in there for changes to women and family workplace policy. I don’t know how far she’ll get with it, but I think it will be on her short list. In foreign policy she’s a consistent hawk and favors action over inaction. Like others have said, a lot will depend on the composition of Congress and the Senate for domestic issues.