You might want to take a look at Larry Sabato’s latest analysis of the presidential race. Dr. Sabato is the director of the respected Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and publishes his analyses in The Crystal Ball. The current status finds four states (New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado) toss-ups with the balance of the states solid Democratic, likely Democratic, leans Democratic, leans Republican, likely Republican, or solid Republican. If Mitt Romney carries all of the leaning, likely, or solid Republican states and all of the toss-ups, he wins. If he loses any of those states including all of the toss-ups, he loses.
Dr. Sabato goes on to consider three scenarios for possible outcomes: Obama wins without winning Ohio, Romney wins without winning Ohio, and an electoral vote tie. Interesting reading.
I continue to think that the popular vote will be very, very close. In a Romney sweep election in addition to the states above he could also carry Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada. But it would take a sweep; I really doubt that would happen in a close election. That’s what Nate Silver has been crowing about at the NYT for the last several months.