Retaking the Senate May Be Harder Than It Looks

As I predicted last year, Barbara Boxer will not seek a new term in 2016:

California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, a tenacious liberal whose election to the Senate in 1992 heralded a new era for women at the upper reaches of political power, announced Thursday she will not seek re-election to a new term next year.

A staunch supporter of abortion rights, gun control and environmental protections, Boxer has said she is most proud of the vote that she cast against the war in Iraq.

Boxer’s retirement sets off a free-for-all among California Democrats, who have been ascendant in the state for decades with few offices to aspire to while Boxer and Sen. Dianne Feinstein have held a lock on the state’s U.S. Senate seats.

I’ll repeat now what I said then: Democrats should not depend on the power of incumbency in “safe” states plus picking up a few seats in vulnerable states to regain the Senate. It’s going to be a hard slog from through November 2016.

For more commentary on Sen. Boxer’s decision see memeorandum.