In a New York Times opinion piece Spencer Bokat-Lindell underscores a point I made earlier—that the present pandemic may well proceed as the 1918 one did, calling out reasons to be optimistic:
- The vaccines are a scientific marvel.
- The rollout is speeding up.
- Cases have plummeted.
and reasons to be pessimistic:
- The U.S. outbreak is still very bad.
- The vaccine messaging has been confusing.
- Vaccine hesitancy is polarized.
- Rich countries are hoarding vaccines.
concluding when a remark about how we’ll know it’s over:
So how exactly will we know when the American outbreak is “overâ€? In The Atlantic, Alexis Madrigal proposes the “flu testâ€: 100 Covid-19 deaths or fewer a day, which is about the number of Americans who die every day from the flu.
“Right now, the country as a whole is still reporting close to 2,000 deaths a day, and just two weeks ago that number was more than 3,000,†he wrote last week. “So, if we’re going by the flu test, we still have a very long way to go.â€
Left unasked is whether the ongoing deaths due to COVID-19 will be instead of the deaths due to seasonal flu, on top of those deaths, or some of each. I’m guessing largely instead of seasonal flu deaths but to be completely accurate some of both.
There are other reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic. The media have one less motivation for polarizing the policy responses to COVID-19 than they did six months ago which should change the landscape of messaging and public reaction. A year later and we still don’t have a good handle on susceptibility to COVID-19. We know that some people are more susceptible than others. For example, those over 65 seem more likely to develop serious COVID-19 and those over 80 more likely to die of it. But there may be many more risk factors than age. We just don’t know.
We don’t have a complete handle on the long-term implications of having contracted the disease. In all likelihood we’ll be dealing with “post-COVID-19 syndrome” for the foreseeable future.
And we don’t know what the long-term effects of the various vaccines will be. We’re presently conducting what are probably the largest field trials in human history.
There have not been enough vaccines made to actually hoard them. Rich countries are making sure their people get them first, but I dont think that is hoarding and I also dont see a problem with that.
I think the flu analogy is pretty reasonable. We have seen very little flu this year but once people get back out in public I expect it to re-emerge. I think that this will just be another disease like flu for which we get a yearly shot and we have 40,000 people a year die, mostly those who refuse the vaccine or have other reasons to be susceptible/cant take the vaccine.
“Vaccine hesitancy is polarized.”
Probably doesnt help that I tell my ultra-conservative family members that they are correct about there being micro-chips in the vaccine. Maybe I should stop that.
“The vaccine messaging has been confusing.”
I guess. These are new vaccines so we have data coming out on them even as we give them. Maybe it is confusing if you consider additional information coming out. If you are referring to all of the disinformation then yes that is bad.
Steve
That’s what he means by “hoarding”. Potayto-potahto.
I don’t think some of the improved numbers highlighted in the link are caused by the vaccine. This last wave crested in different parts of the U.S. at different times. Cases in Illinois crested around Halloween, hospitalizations in late November and deaths in mid December.
I think it means that some form of low level quasi-herd immunity has kicked in when about 30% of a population has been infected. That is probably good news for the vaccines because they should be able to reduce transmissibility as well, but I don’t think they deserve that much credit at this point.
My math is that if 30% of Americans have been infected and have resulting immunity, 20% of Americans are under 18 years of age and have comparable natural immunity, and if most Americans ages 65 and over get vaccinated (which group constitutes 16.5% of the population), then Covid19 will become endemic.
“I think it means that some form of low level quasi-herd immunity has kicked in”
I think your numbers are OK, mine would be just a bit different, and your logic is good but I do disagree a bit with the above. I think it is possible there is some immunity, maybe just cutting down on the super spreaders, but I also think that even in the areas where they dont think Covid is real, once enough people start dying they take ti more seriously. They may not have an official lockdown but they have an unofficial almost equivalent action. The folks going to the bar every night start holding off once people they know are affected. Certainly what we see in coal country.
Steve
I think the big issue is that communities are failing to prioritize vaccination in the priority group. Here are the percentages of those aged 65 and older that have received at least one dose:
Peoria: 83.5%
Champaign: 71.28%
Springfield: 63.99%
East St. Louis: 59.41%
Chicago: 39.35%
Rockford: 34.59%
It looks like the vaccine will play in Peoria, which is about 17% black and 40% white Republican.
My own gut-level opinion is that different distributions of genotypes and experiences result in different levels of susceptibility in different places, i.e. it’s not just age. The implication of that is this. Define X as the percentage of people who’ve recovered from COVID-19 and have some level of acquired immunity plus the people who’ve been inoculated against the disease. In some places it X will need to be 70% to slow spread, in some places 80%, in some place 90%. Most political leaders, unwilling to take risks, will latch onto the worst case scenario.
@PD Shaw: for the life of me I can’t spot the trend in your list. Maybe just plain size. It isn’t race, age, median income, or educational attainment.
@steve, Quasi-herd immunity could be different in different places because the extent of personal distancing. But it looks like most parts of the United States with different cultures, demographics and rules in place went through very similar cycles. If not enough people are vaccinated, there is a risk of another wave. And the risk might be the greatest for those who played by the rules and stayed at home; they might be the potential future super spreaders.
But overall Illinois is doing much better than I would have expected after hearing all of the negative comments from Dave. Readin him you would think Illinois is akin to Somalia, except Somalia has more honest politicians (which actually might be true). Of the larger states it is doing best at distributing and administering the vaccines. There are a number of reasons why I would expect big cities to have lower rates than smaller ones and rural areas, but not that big of a difference. (Note that Florida isn’t the star I keep hearing about on right wing sites. They are doing OK and I do expect it to be more difficult for larger states.)
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-covid-19-vaccines-administered.html
(I use Beckers for this since I am pretty sure they are non-partisan. They are pro-spending for medicine I think, but that is another issue.)
Steve
@Dave, the difference in the list has to be government policy. The Governor was in Peoria last week praising their vaccine response. At that time, the Governor was opening up the next phase of vaccine eligibility and the local public health director said they would not be doing that. They didn’t think opening up eligibility to two-thirds of Peorians would be helpful, they want to finish those 65 and over that want vaccinated first. (The cynical read is that two-thirds of Peorians are obese or smoke) I thought I read Chicago is now prioritizing restaurant workers.
Remember I live in Chicago. In it. PD is in Springfield. Things look different downstate.
But Rockford isn’t in the Chicago metro area. It’s on the opposite side of the state, bordering Iowa, and I’d expect it to be more like Peoria (which I think it resembles demographically) than it is like Chicago.
I’ve been trying to get an appointment to be vaccinated for weeks now. I check all of the sites where I’m registered early, early in the morning each and every morning. My wife’s already received both of her vaccinations—she was in group 1a as an “essential worker”. I’m in 1b as elderly.
@Dave, there are appointments available at the state fairgrounds if your up for a drive (or two). This just opened a week or two ago and doesn’t seem to be on anybody’s radar. A few hundred people from Chicago were vaccinated there last week I believe.
https://scdph.org/
I’m working fulltime. No can do.
It certainly doesn’t seem convenient. I looked up the story: Out of 4,000 people vaccinated at the state fairgrounds, over 400 were from Cook County and over 200 were from neighboring DuPage County. I think these national guard centers set up around the state are supposed to be regional, but it looks like more doses are needed in the Chicago area.
(For non-locals, Chicago is about a 3 1/2 hour drive, depending)
I’ve just returned from a month in FL. Tell me, what is this “COVID†of which you speak?
That is the illness where Florida has 132 people a day dying from it. The one where they are doing a below average job of getting people vaccinated.
Oh, and this Florida. Illinois just spreads its corruption.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-bruce-rauner-covid-vaccine-rick-desantis-florida-keys-20210304-sv3sw22vezbedmxaffk5xuutja-story.html
Steve