In his latest Wall Street Journal column Walter Russell Mead assesses the prospects for a new agreement with Iran:
Given that the nuclear deal or anything like it has zero chance of attracting the two-thirds majority of senators necessary for treaty ratification, the most Tehran can get out of the negotiating process is a Biden pinky-swear. For hard-nosed Iranian mullahs and Revolutionary Guards raised on tales of U.S. perfidy, the idea of trusting the Great Satan’s word—after he’s already fooled you once—is laughable. They see no real reason to pay any kind of price for such a weak agreement.
On the American side, too, the deal is looking less attractive within and without the administration. In retaliation for Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and the additional sanctions he imposed, Iran accelerated its uranium enrichment and other bomb-related activities to the point where the 2015 nuclear deal begins to look meaningless. Sunset provisions built into the original agreement have already begun to kick in, and key restraints on both bomb-making and missile-development programs begin to disappear this presidential term.
This all puts the administration in a tricky spot. The JCPOA remains a sacred cause for many Democrats, and some believe that without re-entering the Iran deal the U.S. will be forced into an impossible choice between accepting an Iranian bomb or launching yet another Middle East war. But as Tehran delays negotiations while launching one provocation after another across the region, it’s making Mr. Biden’s path back to the JCPOA as awkward and humiliating as it possibly can.
I was skeptical of the JCPOA on the grounds that for it to accomplish anything we had to be able to trust the Iranians which I think a dubious prospect. However, I also think that President Trump erred in scrapping the JCPOA on sunk costs grounds. We had already borne the JCPOA’s costs. If it were to provide any benefit, that resided in continuing with the agreement.
Now how are we in even as good a position as we were a decade ago to negotiate a treaty with Iran. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon or they won’t. There isn’t much we can do about it either way. I disagree with Dr. Mead’s observation that they see in recent U. S. actions evidence that they can defy the U. S. with impunity or, rather, I think they will defy the U. S. regardless of what we do.
Every signatory to JPCOA, except the US, plus the IAEA agreed that Iran was in substantial compliance with the agreement. No doubt they were cheating on the margins, but not enough to matter.
The real lesson here is that the US Ruling Class will not honor any agreement they have made. The number of recent examples is too numerous to list. As soon as a agreement becomes the least bit inconvenient, they will scrap it.
JPCOA was scrapped at the behest of Israel, not for any American purpose, and it is a prime example of Israeli’s malign influence over our government.
The US, UK, France, and Germany are also attempting to renegotiate JPCOA, not just return to the original. They want to include restrictions on Iran’s missiles and drones. It might be noted that Britain, France, and Germany also unilaterally abandoned the agreement, and put in place their own sanctions.
There is really no reason that Iran should either renegotiate or even rejoin the original agreement, since there is no grounds for believing the US and its allies will abide by it.
Iran now has over a tonne of LEU (3.67%), which with further processing is likely to be enough for a uranium gun bomb. But as it is it could be used for many dirty bombs.
Trump’s disastrous decision, spurred on by Israel’s self-destructive paranoia (and guilt) enables Iran build a bomb it it wants to. We will have to see if it happens.
PS. We should put Trump in quotes, i. e., “Trump.” It is pretty clear he had little or no control over foreign policy. Bolton, Pompeo, and various institutional vermin like LtC Vindman, vetoed his agreement with Kim for peninsular denuclearization, vetoed his withdrawal from Afghanistan, sabotaged his withdrawal from Syria, etc. etc.
Similarly, we have a “Biden” administration, which fronts a demented pedophile who is completely out of the decision making loop.
No real President since Eisenhower.
I am quite confident that Johnson and Nixon were both in control of their Departments of Defense and State. Since then I’m not so sure.