It’s still a bit early for predictions about the 2020 presidential elections but they’re starting to appear. As of today the econometric models without exception (at least to my knowledge) predict that Trump will be re-elected. That is, presumably, why all of the breathless anticipation on the part of the media at each hint of a recession.
However, I thought you might be interested in this interview at Salon by Paul Rosenberg of a political scientist who called the results of the 2018 midterms on the nose. Her position is that we’re in the midst of a “political realignment” and that Trump’s defeat is very nearly a foregone conclusion:
The good news is that so long as Trump is in office, negative partisanship gives Democrats an edge, as electoral realignment continues. Rather than fearing Trump’s ability to repeat his 2016 upset, on July 1 of this year Bitecofer released her 2020 projection, which shows Democrats winning 278 electoral votes versus 197 for Trump, with several swing states too close to call. Bitecofer also isn’t worried about the Democrats losing their House majority. On Aug. 6, Bitecofer released a preliminary list of 18 House seats the Democrats could flip in 2020, nine of them in Texas. The most significant threats that concern Democrats are actually golden opportunities, according to her model.
In essence her position is that the 2018 midterms did not turn out as they did because voters who had voted for Trump in 2016 voted Democratic in 2018 but because the Democrats were better able to get their base out in 2018 than they had been in 2016.
I do not know who will win the 2020 presidential election. Like Dr. Bitecofer I think that turnout is important but unlike her I think it matters who the Democratic presidential candidate is for just that reason. I’m also uncertain I agree with her on just who the Democratic base is.
All that I have to add is that the political landscape is littered with the corpses of the political ambitions of people who underestimated Donald Trump. Historically, presidents have tended to be re-elected and whether the incumbent or not the winning candidate has been the candidate who painted the brightest picture of the American people and the country’s future. Maybe that’s changed. If Dr. Bitecofer is right, all the more reason to be more concerned about the Democrats than the Republicans.
Agreed. There has been endless analysis on why Trump won the election, most of it centered on how he appealed to groups that were discounted baby the experts, or whatever. Or, they concentrate on how Comey handled the emails or the Russian interference. What is usually missed is that Hillary was an awful candidate, the 2nd worst in my lifetime. It is entirely possible for the Dems to pick someone so awful they can lose. That said, it is way too early to talk about this.
Steve
When you have Michael Moore begging Michelle Obama to throw her hat in the presidential candidate ring to save the Democratic Party, you can be pretty sure how many progressives feel about quality of the current Democratic field. When a New Age mystic makes more sense than seasoned politicians, it’s a scary thing. IMO the only way Trump loses is if a ‘credible’ third party candidates runs with the specific purpose of drawing more votes away from him than from the Democratic candidate. Watch out for Romney. I think he’s going to run in 2020 to do exactly that.
But the demographics. The DEMOGRAPHICS!
Here is an interesting thing I found after a long and tedious search on the interwebs. It is a map showing the percentage of African-Americans by state.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_African-American_population
This has got to be the pinnacle of fake news. Everybody knows that it can’t possibly be that the blackest states are the reddest states.
There were a couple of political events in New Hampshire this week. Attendance: Trump, 15000+; Biden, 50.
There are so many differing opinions, “facts,†historical trends – all confusing and personally giving me no clues as to the election outcome in 2020. And, even though Trump’s rallies are full of enthusiastic supporters, I really don’t know if that will be enough to overcome the vitriol and rancid hatred of resist-leaning dems towards him.
IMO, we’re in illogical times.
“IMO, we’re in illogical times.”
Jan, I’ve lived in illogical times for more than 70 years now.
“There were a couple of political events in New Hampshire this week. Attendance: Trump, 15000+; Biden, 50.”
I think that we have pretty well established that the GOP is now a cult of personality. No real need anymore to keep confirming that.
Steve
And that none of the Democratic aspirants to the presidency generates much enthusiasm other than Bernie Sanders and he’s not even a Democrat.
“I think that we have pretty well established that the GOP is now a cult of personality.â€
So does he get to use Greek columns now?
We’re beginning to lurch uncontrollably into the material of another post. I think there’s no question that Trump is the object of a cult of personality. Or that Obama was the object of a cult of personality. And that both of these exceed what is expected in presidents.
Why? I think that harnessing of the media, particularly social media, is probably implicated. In other words expect more of this behavior both from Democrats and Republicans. Things will never go back to normal. At least not while there’s a Google, Facebook, or Twitter.
Drew- Trump’s childhood home. Cant tell if these are Greek or Roman columns. Always screw that up. Several of his current homes have columns.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/07/donald-trump-jamaica-estates-new-york-election-day
Dave- There has always been a bit of the cult of personality. JFK and Reagan certainly had it. Obama had some of it. The issue with Trump is the degree to which it exists. It has never been this extreme before in the modern era. Agree that social media has worsened this, and maybe what we are seeing with Trump is just the natural progression of this trend. Hard to imagine it getting much worse and we still try to pretend that we have a democracy.
Steve
“the winning candidate has been the candidate who painted the brightest picture of the American people and the country’s future”
This is why Elizabeth Warrens “I have a plan for that” is so powerful. Instead of minimizing or denying an issue, it acknowledges the reality of the issue, but also provides a positive path forward.