Politics Is Still Local

CNN has proclaimed Republican Karen Handel the victor over Democratic tyro Jon Ossoff in the race to replace Tom Price in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District:

Atlanta (CNN)Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in a high-stakes special election for a Georgia House seat on Tuesday, denying Democrats their first major victory of the Donald Trump era.

Handel bested Ossoff by 5 percentage points in the most expensive House race in history.
It was a much closer margin than the 20-plus point wins typically posted by former Rep. Tom Price — whose departure to become Trump’s health and human services secretary created the vacancy.

An astonishing $55 million was spent on the election, mostly by Democrats and much of it provided by outside groups. Consider this graph, helpfully provided by the New York Times, carefully:

Note that the total money raised and spent is a lousy predictor of the outcome but that the money raised in Georgia is a pretty good one. Democrats managed to narrow the lead but didn’t win. To state the obvious: that isn’t enough.

Democrats need to rediscover basic retail politics.

  • Present a candidate. Karen Handel is an experienced, seasoned politician, known in the district. Jon Ossoff has never held elective office and doesn’t even live in the district.
  • Have issues and an agenda. At Vox Matt Yglesias suggests:

    One thing they might want to try is developing a substantive policy agenda to run on. They came close this time, and they’ll just need to put forth an attractive package for voters in the 2018 midterms.

  • Think local. Stop trying to nationalize everything. People are more likely to turn out and vote about the issues that touch them the most which are overwhelmingly local.
  • Build a grassroots organization and support.

It will take sustained effort and attention but it’s the only way to win.

One final thought. Question: who benefited from all of the money that was spent losing the run-off election? Answer: television, consultants, and Democratic operatives. Follow the money.

13 comments… add one
  • Andy Link

    Wow, that money from CA, NY and Massachusetts. All that for what would have been a largely symbolic victory.

    I agree with your prescription entirely.

  • The reason that my prescription won’t be followed is that it largely cuts the professional political operatives out of the picture. IMO professional political operatives presently have complete control over the Democratic Party and substantial control of the Republican Party.

  • TastyBits Link

    The Democrats tried to buy the presidency for the most incompetent candidate in history, and they have continued trying to buy races for worthless candidates. So much for decrying “money in politics”.

    The reason they had to get an outsider is because they could not find anybody in the district with the correct ideological credentials.

    Once again, the cooked poll numbers did nothing to help.

    How do you know a Democrat/progressive is lying? When his/her mouth is open.

    (Wait, we need to investigate the Russian connection. We know the Russians have been extensively involved with Georgia for some time.)

  • Modulo Myself Link

    The Democrats are nuts if they think they can regain some/any power through the suburbs, especially some place like Cobb County. Greed and apathy are the local issues, basically. Computer-created robots like Ossoff lack the pathos-based human touch of his awful opponent. They would do far better in rural communities, and they should have started doing this in 2000.

    In my lifetime the Democrats have been running away from non-voters as fast as possible. They don’t understand why the Third Way, which was built to pander to white-flight suburbanites in 70s, has failed with voters who just want tax breaks and everything to work out, or at least nobody to call them greedy or pointless.

  • Guarneri Link

    “Wait, we need to investigate the Russian connection. We know the Russians have been extensively involved with Georgia for some time.”

    You beat me to it.

    And modulo, you keep flogging that one. Sounds like a grand strategic worldview to me. Down with greed!! Free beer for everyone; well, at least city dwellers and farmers…..

  • The Democrats are nuts if they think they can regain some/any power through the suburbs

    Assume your view is correct. Urban populations are decreasing just about everywhere while suburban populations increase which would imply that Democrats are doomed.

    I don’t think that’s the case. I think that even though blacks, for example, are leaving the cities for the suburbs or moving from the urban North to the suburban South they’ll take their political preferences with them. Republican strongholds will become competitive.

    especially some place like Cobb County. Greed and apathy are the local issues, basically

    That’s the spirit! A sure path to a Democratic majority.

  • Modulo Myself Link

    The Democrats and the Clintons built a party on the idea of the kissing the ass of good suburbanites while deregulating and worshiping the rich and the military, and it’s led to a huge financial collapse, the Iraq War, and a total eradication of any sort of real future for humans. They may be doomed as a party, but there’s no point in just trying to be half-reactionary.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    Well, if approximately 5000 people had voted the other way yesterday – the analysis would be totally different.

    We don’t really know if a different candidate, or a different message, would have done better. Republican strategists doing analysis prior to the results thought the Democratic candidate ran a pretty good campaign, didn’t make any mistakes.

    All I conclude is that this is the biggest boost in the arm to the Congressional Republican agenda since the November election. Will Republicans and Trump take advantage of it vs wasting it like they have for the past 8 months? We all know the answer to that!

  • Guarneri Link

    “…eradication of any sort of real future for humans.”

    Wow. I’m thinking that could be bad…….

  • Ben Wolf Link

    Dave, I think you’re exactly right. The mistake we make is thinking that Democrats care about political power, when all they really want is to improve their positions in a patronage machine.

  • Keep in mind that I was preceded by three generations of political operatives.

  • Ben Wolf Link

    I suspect the motives and goals of your forebears were somewhat different than this current group of “progressives.”

  • Ben Wolf Link

    I think it’s noteworthy (as I just commented at OTB) that four non-insider Democratic candidates running in red districts overperformed while receiving almost no assistance from the DNC or DCCC (see Achie Parnell, who could have won last night.)

    Meanwhile those organization set fire to millions on behalf of another centrist candidate who underperformed despite every financial advantage.

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