Megan McArdle’s post at Bloomberg on Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating has the provocative title “Clinton Support Has Nowhere to Go But Down”. I think that’s nonsense and to back up my belief I would happily bet a shiny new dime that at some point between now and November 2016 Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating as measured by the Washington Post/ABC News poll will be above the 45% that has everybody in such a twitter.
Quite the opposite of the “nowhere to go” view, I think that Sec. Clinton’s favorability and unfavorability ratings have both floors and ceilings. I would also happily bet a shiny new dime that at no time between now and November 2016 will Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating go over 60% or under 35%. If you gave me odds, I might be willing to tighten those margins a bit (but just a bit).
I assume that the title for that post was dreamed up by some unthinking editor because it really doesn’t match the post very well so I probably don’t have anybody to bet with. Nonetheless I wanted to put my marker down.