At Roll Call election analyst Nathan L. Gonzales points out the lessons of the 2019 elections may be different than most think. Here are his hypotheses:
- Kentucky was not an upset.
- Trump was an asset, not a liability.
- Impeachment isn’t the silver bullet for Republicans.
- Bevin clearly had a unique problem.
- Transformation of Virginia is complete.
- Suburbs continue to be a problem for Republicans.
- Mississippi is a red state.
Read the whole thing.
My own view is that people tend to over-interpret elections. Just because a candidate with a certain profile wins a particular election in a particular state, county, city, etc. doesn’t mean that another candidate with a similar profile is a shoe-in in another state, county, city, etc. Politics remains stubbornly local whatever analysts may think.
Also, check out the author’s four potential scenarios for the way the 2020 elections might play out. I have lost any predictive ability I ever had in the Era of Trump. All I can say is that I wish that Democrats were taking a lower risk “eyes on the prize” strategy rather than a “high risk/high reward” strategy. And don’t underestimate Trump.