Never Tell Me the Odds!

As of today President Trump’s job approval rating based on the RCP Average of Polls (sampled above) is 45%. The spread (the difference between approval and disapproval ratings) is 6.6 points, the most favorable since the earliest days of his presidency. The polls included in this RCPPA includes polls taken after the tweets heard ’round the world and incessant charges of racism. Those polls include Rasmussen (50%), Reuters/Ipsos (44%), and Economist/YouGov (46%). An approval rating on election day of 51% is generall considered a lock on re-election.

I don’t know what this improvement in Trump’s approval rating portends for his re-election but I think it’s fair to speculate that he is now immune to charges of racism.

I also think that the mystery of Trump is that a significant number of people vote for him despite their personal disapproval of him. I speculate that there are people who actually support Trump who lie about it to pollsters.

8 comments… add one
  • TastyBits Link

    I see OTB is about to have a mental meltdown.

  • Guarneri Link

    “I see OTB is about to have a mental meltdown.”

    About to? They went full on berserk a year ago. Writers and commenters. To the point of pettiness, lying by omission and completely disingenuous characterizations, especially in comparison to politicians in general. They have never come to grips with:

    “I also think that the mystery of Trump is that a significant number of people vote for him despite their personal disapproval of him.”

    That would be people like me. His personality and character defects need no rehash. But is he focused on key policy issues of the day, and are his policies appropriate? I would say immigration, the economic environment, non-interventionism and trade all qualify as key. I think he’s mostly on target.

    People were mesmerized by Obama’s gift of tongue. But Obama was a zero on policy. Large corporate man.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    RACISM! Has been overplayed and has lost it’s sting. Like striking a man with your fist called a hate crime. Hit? Hate? Well, yes….

  • TastyBits Link


    The OTB crowd has been pouting since President Trump was elected, but some things get the hive agitated more than others. You can get them buzzing, but on some days, they do it themselves.

  • Guarneri Link

    Ain’t it great!

  • steve Link

    I dont think racism ever really bothered you guys anyway. That is the mistake committed by many on the left. They actually believed, and still believe that you guys, or some of you, might care. One of the reasons I dont throw out that accusation is that it has long been clear that few on the right really care so it is not a persuasive argument. (Note, since reading comprehension tends to be low on the GOP side that I am not saying all Republicans are racist. The huge majority clearly are not, its just that you dont care about the issue.) If anything, people on the right now instinctively push back against racism, defending it as a matter of tribalism.

    As to Trump’s re-election, he has accomplished almost nothing, but always claims he is the best and has done the most. His tribe believes anything he says. He continues with his get out the base vote strategy, but now almost the entire party has joined his base.

    “I also think that the mystery of Trump is that a significant number of people vote for him despite their personal disapproval of him.”

    Yes. Character no longer matters. After years of having Republicans talking about personal values (we all remember Bennett’s books I presume) the thas gone out the window. Remember those conservatives who opposed tariffs, or thought the Fed was keeping rates too low? Now supporting Trump means you have to like tariffs and you want the Fed to lower those rates. Remember when Republicans opposed increasing the debt? So there are a lot of people who I think probably even lie to themselves and tell themselves they still believe in all of those things in some abstract way and give Trump unfavorables, but vote for him anyway since when it comes down to it they have been giving up those values all along.


  • Character no longer matters.

    It does to me. I did not vote for Bill Clinton because I thought he was a low character, a judgment which events confirmed. I did not vote for Donald Trump for any number of reasons, not the least of which is that I think he is a low character. Another was that I do not think that a complete outsider can successfully navigate the labyrinths of the federal government, another judgment that has been confirmed by events.

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