This prediction at STAT sounds about right to me:
Public health experts are increasingly worried that Americans are underestimating how long the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt everyday life in the country, warning that the Trump administration’s timelines are offering many a false sense of comfort.
It would be interesting to know the operative definition of “everyday life” or “returning to normal”. I think that at a first approximation we will never return to normal or, perhaps more precisely, what is perceived as normal has changed.
I found this grimly amusing:
Experts say even a return to normal could come with asterisks. Mina noted, for instance, that restaurants may need to put more space between tables. Others have suggested people in high-risk groups — those over 65 or 70 and people with chronic conditions — may need to practice physical distancing even after restrictions have loosened for others, at least until vaccine is ready.
Ignoring the legal problems in the last sentence, the “experts” appear to be unaware that restaurants (the ones that actually have tables) gauge their prospective revenue based on the number of people they seat and how many times per day that can be turned over.
Restaurants tend to operate on very tight margins at the best of times and reducing the prospective revenue by 10% is likely to mean the difference between a money-losing hobby and something from which one can make a living. My offhand guess is that sit-down restaurants may become a thing of the past, particularly in places with very high real estate costs per square foot, like New York or San Francisco. The hospitality sector in general could be, if not doomed, a shadow of its former self.
When you recognize how many of the “working poor” work in just those sectors, it really makes you wonder what “normal” will look like.
And this sounds like a free flight of fantasy to me:
“We need an army of contact tracers in every community in the U.S. to be ready to find every contact and warn them to care for themselves and stop spreading it to others,†he said.
We are not China. Regardless of the risks we will not have paid informers in every block tracking people. Who would pay for such a thing? It would necessarily be financed locally. Why should the residents of Marfa, Texas pay for contact tracing in New York City? Nine of the ten most densely-populated towns in the country are in the New York metro area (the other is in LA).
Last observations:
- I’d have a lot more confidence in that 18 month estimate for a vaccine if a vaccine for any coronavirus had ever been produced. What if a vaccine is never produced?
- The cost of contact-tracing increases exponentially with the population density.
- Just because you’re an expert in something does not mean you’re an expert in everything.
- We really need to start talking about risk tolerance. Different people have difference levels of tolerance for or ability to accept risk. In general the poorest have the least ability accept increased risk. Let’s not lose track of that in a panic-stricken rush towards a risk-free world.
Discussing risk aversion verses risk tolerance is the key to achieving any kind of balancing act, in the aftermath of the chaos created by this virus. Some may decide to trade everything in order toâ€feel†safe. For others, they will hold their civil rights and freedoms close, and be more willing to live life without the bubble packing of extra government assurances to protect them, 24/7.
Judging by my neighborhood Nextdoor message board, we could recruit lots of citizens who’d volunteer to inform on their neighbors.
The Queen had a good perspective in her address today.
“We will meet again”.
Humans are social animals. It maybe longer then we like, but as a society we will go back to having weddings, eating out with friends, going to religious services. The desire is primal, so a lot of bright minds will be working on how to move past “lock downs” while keeping it as safe as possible.
I too think a vaccine maybe a long time coming — but I am optimistic that an effective therapeutic to lessen the severity (so its only as bad as the flu) is doable in a reasonable time frame (3 months – 3 years).
Funny that these days we Amerikans would rather be governed by the Queen than by an elected reality-show host.
At some point, and sooner rather than later, the lockdown will end regardless of the intensity of the pandemic. People will chose possible death by COVID-19 over actual, guaranteed homelessness and starvation.
Right now the stock market is still down 30%, and 30 to 40 million people are out of work. (The employment statistics being bandied about are a couple of weeks old.) Those are 1929/1930 numbers, the Great Depression. If the current lockdown continues through the summer, there will be no recovery for years. The first Great Depression lasted 11 years, until the WW II build up. Of course, Hitler lifted Germany out it rather quickly. At some point, people will decide that 5 million dead Americans is worth a job and income and a home.
It is notable that all professionals are extremely narrowly educated, and the medical profession is the worst educated of all. All professionals suffer from what the French call a “d´éformation professionelle,” which basically means your education makes you stupid. The medical profession is unable to understand the consequences of the lockdown. Their entire focus is on the patient in the bed, and nothing else. They do not understand that a long lockdown means economic collapse, starvation, further disease, civil war, perhaps world war, and dictatorship.
It is also interesting that the medical profession plans their facilities, staffing and stores on average conditions. When I studied engineering, we were taught to plan for extreme conditions, both very high and very low. So 100 year floods and droughts, 200 mph winds and no wind (wind turbines), rush hour traffic loads, 500 mile duration engines, etc. The medical planners eagerly sought to eliminate “excess beds” and “unnecessary” hospitals. Growing communities need permission from state bureaucrats to build hospitals and clinics. Corpsmen and medics coming home from ‘Nam were forbidden to use their skill. The stupidity is neverending.
I should also add to that that early reports of declining crime rates during lockdowns appear to have been, well, premature. In Chicago the number of shootings and homicides has increased during “stay at home”. Who knew that members of criminal gangs don’t pay any attention to directives? The same has happened in Baltimore. NYC, from which there were early anecdotal reports of a decline in property crimes, is now reporting a sort of crime wave.
“So 100 year floods and droughts, 200 mph winds and no wind (wind turbines), rush hour traffic loads, 500 mile duration engines, etc.”
That’s a bit harsh. Engineers don’t design for 1000 year floods, 500 mph winds or asteroids crashing through the roof. And 2x – 3x safety factors are common. I don’t want to harsh anyone’s mellow, but airplanes fly around with cracks all over them, reliant on redundancy and inspection protocols. All design has its limits.
” They do not understand that a long lockdown means economic collapse, starvation, further disease, civil war, perhaps world war, and dictatorship.”
Lots of engineers in the family and I always thought they had a narrow focus on the world. Reality is that most doctors, and most engineers for that matter, understand the consequences of the lockdown. We also have some understanding of what happens if we dont have one. It is all about trade-offs. 2 or 3 months of lockdown vs 2-3 million deaths. Who knows how many permanently disabled. You favor the death option.
Steve
Steve, the “death option†is pulled out to shut off debate, diminishing other concerns appropriately raised by the proportion of mitigation being mandated all over the country. Basically, sudden economic death is happening right before our eyes, disrupting people’s lives, businesses, and civil liberties. Is not this worthy of discussion? Can’t people question or voice contrary opinions without first being steamrolled by disquieting rebukes, insinuating one must be favoring “death options†for opening up a 100 year event to a broader inquiry of how we are handling this virus?
Lockdown can’t be enforced in the West, so distancing will vary depending on what is stronger, fear or desire.
I’m hopeful the worldwide nature or the pandemic will eventually give us a better understanding of viral infections and possibly a path to a cure.
“Steve, the “death option†is pulled out to shut off debate”
Guess I dont see it that way. It is absolutely part of the debate which needs to be faced. It is something that would need to be factored in if we went into a Depression like slump. People would probably die from that. If we decide to isolate only the old and the sick, we know that death rates go up in isolated people. You just need to own up to the fact that what you seem to want will lead to a lot of deaths. We have no idea about long term morbidity either which may be another substantial cost.
Steve