Lie, Damned Lies, and Mass Shootings

After every mass shooting, particularly mass shootings in schools, I’ve seen emotional outpourings not limited to pleas for gun control but for all sorts of other measures including lowering the voting age to 16. Here are a series of facts about homicides and mass shootings. I may fill them in with citations as I have the energy and interest but those are easy enough to find if you’re interested.

  • The U. S. has a much higher homicide rate than any European country.
  • The U. S. has a much higher rate of gun ownership than any European country.
  • Mass shootings are rare incidents, both here and in Europe.
  • The U. S. has more incidents of mass shootings than any European country.
  • The U. S. has four times the population of the largest European country (Germany).
  • The rate per 100K population at which mass shootings take place in the U. S. is just about the same as in Germany.
  • The rate per 100K population at which mass shootings take place in the U. S. is lower than in some European countries, at least recently.
  • The gun homicide rate in the U. S. is sharply different between urban blacks and urban whites with urban blacks being most of the perpetrators and most of the victims.
  • The rural black homicide rate is roughly the same as the rural white homicide rate and much lower than the urban black homicide rate.
  • Mass shootings have taken place even in countries with very strict gun control.

Now the analysis and opinion part.

  • It’s hard to do meaningful analysis or make predictions about rare incidents.
  • Strict gun control laws in the U. S. will almost undoubtedly reduce the rate of suicide by gun and fatal accidents involving firearms.
  • They probably won’t do much to reduce the rate of gun homicides or mass shootings. The horse is already out of the barn on those.
  • The NRA isn’t the problem but it makes a convenient whipping boy.
  • The NRA does mobilize a segment of the population that elects politicians that progressives don’t like (and not just because they oppose gun control) pretty successfully.
  • The reason that stricter gun controls are politically difficult is that there are a lot of 2nd Amendment abolutists just as there are a lot of 1st Amendment absolutists and with equal legitimacy.
  • The overall homicide rate can probably be lowered with a combination of economic development focused on the inner cities, counseling not limited to young black men, and promoting social organizations other than gangs.
10 comments… add one
  • Guarneri Link

    You might want to add a perspective that I, at least, find relevant:

    – The number of households owning guns has declined by half in the past 40 years. (I find households to be the best way to come at it, as opposed to, say, per capital.)

    – The pre-purchase background check effort has increased dramatically the past 20 years.

    Both of these speak to dealing with mental health, personal values and societal /cultural issues, as opposed to inanimate objects.

  • Andy Link

    I think some of the facts are disputable. A big problem is that no one agrees on a definition of “mass shooting.” The “facts” about mass shootings are highly variable depending on the definition. There are also statistical anomalies – for example, one bad incident in a low population country can greatly skew per capita statistics (ie. Norway).

    I do agree with most of your opinions, however.

    BTW, I found this a useful resource for research related to gun violence reduction policy.

    https://journalistsresource.org/studies/government/criminal-justice/effectiveness-policies-programs-reduce-firearm-violence-meta-analysis

  • Andy:

    If any of the items in my list of facts is not indeed a fact, tell me which they are and I’ll review them and possibly reclassify them as opinions or just leave them out altogether. This:

    There are also statistical anomalies – for example, one bad incident in a low population country can greatly skew per capita statistics (ie. Norway).

    is my point about “rare events”. I don’t think there’s any doubt that mass shootings are rare events including in the United States. They seem more common here than they actually are because a) we’re a country of 330 million people; and b) perseveration. Rather than comparing us to Germany or France the comparison should be to Europe but even if we’re compared with Germany or France we’re still about in the same order of magnitude.

    There’s some dispute about the gun ownership statistics, too. I’ve seen claims that France has one of the highest rates of gun ownership in the world—almost all illegal. How is one to determine the rate of illegal gun possession?

  • Andy Link

    Dave,

    This “fact check” article lists some of the issues. Note that I’m not saying your facts are wrong, just that they depend on assumptions that not everyone agrees on.

    Specifically
    – Rarity of mass shootings generally (an expansive definition of mass shooting means they wouldn’t be rare in the US)
    – Mass shooting rate per 100k (Germany and Europe)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/12/03/obamas-inconsistent-claim-on-the-frequency-of-mass-shootings-in-the-u-s-compared-to-other-countries/?utm_term=.751c4ed9cd7c

  • I’m using the FBI’s designation of “mass murder”: four or more murders in a single incident. I think that other definitions obscure important distinctions.

  • Here’s a competing link: mass school shootings aren’t increasing in frequency.

    Of course everything is a matter of definition. With the proper definitions up is down and left is right.

  • steve Link

    I think that the definitions are issues, and it is not as extreme as up and down. It is part of why there are disagreements about basic facts. I would also point out that we don’t have a lot of good data about some of these things since the gun lobby has effectively aborted most research.

    The last two times I bought guns, both in the last 10 years, it wasn’t that difficult.

    Otherwise, your list is pretty good. I would just add that the other reason gun control will be hard is that we have so many in circulation.

    Steve

  • I would just add that the other reason gun control will be hard is that we have so many in circulation.

    That’s what I meant when I wrote that the horse is already out of the barn.

  • Gray Shambler Link

    If the mainstream media hate this violence so much, why the continuous, repetitive, 24 hour coverage?
    Don’t they know this is like candy to the shooter, and future shooters?

  • When you consider the scripted presumably entertainment part of what’s on TV, it’s clear that they don’t hate violence or abusive sexuality. There’s much more of both than there was 40 years ago.

    They want to control it to their own benefit.

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