I have to admit that I’m skeptical about Colin P. Clarke’s conclusion in his post at the RAND Blog on the continuingly changing face of Al Qaeda in Syria:
Six years into the conflict in Syria, al Qaeda’s presence in the country has never been stronger. And while most dismiss the notion of al Qaeda as a political entity in Syria, the same was said 30 years ago about Hezbollah — the Shia group that now holds seats in Lebanon’s parliament and maintains a vast military wing. If jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda in Syria can succeed in rebranding themselves, they can take steps toward positioning themselves as political players if or when negotiations to end the civil war in Syria gain traction.
To my eye treating Middle Eastern Islamist groups as though they were Western corporations is just as misleading as Orientalism. Let’s try another analogy. What if, rather than “rebranding” themselves as a strategem, is it possible that many of these Islamist groups are familial or tribal in nature and the dizzying variety of organizations and names just represents larger groups fracturing along lines of family, clan, or tribe?
“Before I was nine I had learned the basic canon of Arab life. It was me against my brother; me and my brother against our father; my family against my cousins and the clan; the clan against the tribe; and the tribe against the world and all of us against the infidel.”
~~ Leon Uris, “The Haj”