It Ain’t the Weather

Now that the Census Bureau has published its preliminary census results, quite a few people have been pointing out that California and New York are likely to lose seats in Congress as a result of outmigration. Not to be left behind, Illinois is also losing population and is likely to lose a seat in Congress right along with them. The editors of the Chicago Tribune react:

Preliminary numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau released Monday demonstrate once again the shrinking state of Illinois. For the sixth straight year, the state’s population dropped while every bordering state’s population grew.

The early numbers show Illinois’ net population dropped from July 2018 to July 2019 by 51,250, down slightly from last year’s net loss of 55,757 residents, an updated number. The figures continue to confirm a sorry trend. The state is bleeding residents while each of its six neighbors — yes, we’re counting Michigan, which shares a lake border with Illinois — has grown every year since 2011.

Get that? It ain’t the weather or, at least, it ain’t the weather alone. Indiana’s weather isn’t nicer than ours and Indiana has gained almost as many people as Illinois has lost. Indeed, our adjoining states have gained more people than Illinois has lost. The editors offer an explanation for the trend:

It is loss of opportunity, high taxes and frustration at fiscal mismanagement by government leaders that penalizes taxpayers. Who is going to pay for all the pension debt, interest on the debt and the mountain of unpaid bills at the Illinois comptroller’s office? Taxpayers who stay.

Since 2013, the last year Illinois’ population grew, the state’s net population has plummeted by more than than 223,000 residents. That number includes births, deaths, and domestic and international migration. That means it also reflects the Illinois Exodus about which we have been writing, urging state leaders to implement pro-growth policies. We’ve pushed legislators to allow voters to loosen the Illinois Constitution’s pension clause to protect what government workers have earned so far, but also allow lawmakers to scale back future benefits. That would ease income and property tax pressure across the state. It would give frustrated residents a reason to stay.

But elected leaders, including Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, don’t support putting pension reform on the ballot. Higher taxes? They’re on board for that. Both of their spending plans for the next fiscal year include a smorgasbord of tax hikes. None of them can reverse decades of government overpromising and overspending. Thus, the exodus.

Unmentioned in the editorial is the large proportion of those erstwhile Illinoisans who are departing from the Chicago area.

Fewer Illinoisans is not a progressive solution. Fewer people means fewer people to pay the bills for all of the things that progressives want to do and fewer people to shoulder the burden of all of the things to which the state government has committed to be paid at a future date.

The assumptions have failed but our state’s legislators are staying the course, hoping for some miraculous fix. There is no miraculous fix. There is no silver lining.