Is the recently-announced revision in the Democratic Party primary and caucus schedule for 2008 an attempt to nip Hillary Clinton’s candidacy in the bud?
Almost certain to be hurt most in both states [ed. Nevada and South Carolina] is U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, 58, New York.
Clinton has been counting on a jump-start with a top two or three showing in Iowa, followed by a big Northeast win in New Hampshire. But unlikely to finish in the top two in either Nevada or South Carolina, she could lose steam before the big states choose.
She still is the overall favorite. But more and more leading Democrats express concern that even if she gets the nomination, she probably won’t win the election.
That’s one reason the field of candidates is growing. In addition to the likelies listed above, these wannabes probably will seek the nomination: U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, 62, Connecticut; U.S. Sen. Joe Biden Jr., 63, Delaware; the 2004 presidential loser John Kerry, 62, U.S. senator from Massachusetts; and U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, 53, Wisconsin.
There are, presumably, lots of reasons for the revisions in the schedule including allowing more regions of the country to have a say in determining who the party’s standard-bearer will be and greater minority representation (IIRC the stated reason). In caucus states a small, well-organized cadre of regulars can railroad its candidate through.
But this is an explanation that hadn’t occurred to me.
It’s a John Edwards schedule. He does okay in Iowa and he has labor support in Nevada, and has a leg-up in SC.
But if one guy can’t take both caucuses we go into NH with no designated ‘anti-Hillary.’ In any case, Hillary has the money to survive all four early contests and make it to the big states. If Edwards or some other candidate sweeps the early stuff, fine, then the anti-H money all goes one direction. But if it’s messy — say a win apiece for Feingold, Edwards and Biden — it’s all Hillary.
Unless Gore is getting in.
Isn’t politics fun?