I found this backgrounder by Ankit Panda at The Diplomat on the several border disputes between India and China very interesting. You might as well.
This marks the first in a series of articles I’ll be authoring for The Diplomat outlining the various elements of this standoff. Though I’ll elaborate in successive articles, the dispute began in early June when Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engineers began constructing a road near the Indian border on a piece of territory disputed between China and Bhutan. India, perceiving this as an unacceptable change to the status quo with potentially serious strategic ramifications, crossed a settled and undisputed international border with its troops to block the PLA contingent from proceeding. The Chinese government was apoplectic about what it saw as an Indian incursion across a settled border into Chinese territory (in reality, disputed with Bhutan) and has given an ultimatum to New Delhi that no diplomatic solution can be found until Indian troops unilaterally withdraw from what Beijing sees as Chinese territory. India, in the meantime, is not budging. Both sides are gridlocked and tensions are rising.
I don’t believe that the most likely dispute that could result in the use of nuclear weapons is between North Korea and the United States. I think it’s either a dispute between India and Pakistan or between India and China.
I agree with the gist of your piece. I also suspect that in a conflict between the US and North Korea they would really launch on South Korea or Japan.
Steve
And this wasn’t even the most ominous news from China this week. That must go to Liu Xiaobo and the expulsion of Hong Kong legislators.
Sigh.
I don’t think this border dispute is all that serious, twenty years ago yes, today no. You have to bear in mind that China and India cooperate on a wide range of things. Both are members of BRICS, which meets regularly and which forms a sub group at G20 meetings. Both are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and India cooperates with China on the One Belt One Road Project. And both are friends of Russia and buy copious amounts of Russian hardware.
For that matter, Pakistan, India’s presumed enemy and ally of China, is also a member of both SCO and OBOR.
Neither China nor India nor Pakistan nor Russia is likely to start a war anytime soon. However, the US is. The list of countries that the US has actually invaded or attacked in recent years is: Afghanistan (2), Iraq (3), Libya (2), Serbia, Somalia, Sudan, and Syria. The US has initiated or supported coups d’etat in Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine. I won’t bother to recite the US’ long, sordid history of imperial conquest in the Caribbean and Central America. All of these are wars of aggression and constitute war crimes under the Nuremberg rules and UN regulations. Actually, every American President since and including Polk is a war criminal under those laws.
At present, the US has some 900 bases in 160 countries. Almost all of these are small SOCOM bases. The US is actively fighting across most of Africa from Nigeria to Libya to Somali (continuously in Somalia for 24 years), Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and Easter Ukraine where our and Britain’s special forces are assisting the Kiev government.
So, the answer to, Who would start a nuclear war?, is the US.
You need to given up your obsession with North Korea, China et al. and start paying attention to our own Deep State and the neocons. They are the problem.