When I read retired Adm. James Stavridis’s recent column at Bloomberg, I felt as though I had come in to a movie in the middle. In the column he advises Secretary of State not to enter into direct talks with the Venezuelan Maduro government:
Maduro, meanwhile, has indicated a willingness to undertake direct negotiations with the U.S. This is something Pompeo should avoid. The confrontation needs to be taken out of Venezuela-versus-the-U.S. mode and viewed comprehensively, as a disagreement between Venezuela and the rest of the region over legitimate democratic norms.
I couldn’t figure out what either side had to gain by negotiating with the other. I found this passage particularly puzzling:
This is not the time for the 82nd Airborne Division to parachute in to the rescue. Having once commanded the U.S. Southern Command – charged with all military activity south of the Mexico border — I know that the old sentiment, “Yanqui go home,†remains central to the political zeitgeist of Latin America and the Caribbean. But it is “la hora de la verdad†for a unified regional approach, a push for humanitarian relief, and a carefully graduated ladder of economic punishments and inducements.
IMO this is not the time to be suggesting U. S. military intervention in Venezuela, even obliquely.
As I piece things together the United States has imposed economic sanctions against the regime, has been encouraging other countries to do the same, and backed a recent round of failed multi-lateral talks which aimed at accomplishing the goals Adm. Stravridis lists in the passage above.
It seems to me that the only reasonable role for the U. S. in this drama is one of concerned bystander. The OAS doesn’t need our encouragement to want to get rid of the Maduro government. That regime threatens to destabilize all of Venezuela’s neighbors. They have plenty of incentive. They’re at least as humanitarian as we are and positioned better to provide aid. As to “a free and fair election by a date certain” overseen by international observers, Ukraine had such a thing. That didn’t stop the U. S. from sponsoring a group of which included fascists to overthrow the government that election installed. Maduro is certainly aware of that. Distrust of the U. S. is such that our sponsorship or participation in talks is an impediment to their success.
The US should stay out, but… the Cubans are in, and maybe the Russians…no , the Russians are in. Monroe Doctrine notwithstanding.
Some people just won’t accept that US meddling is not always accepted positively, even by the people we claim to want to help. That sometimes it will be a negative factor.
Steve
The OAS will preen and posture but do nothing because the only nation that can overthrow Maduro is the US and everybody knows it. So it’s a free play for them. If we don’t get rid of Maduro we’re the bad guys for letting him stay in power, if we do we’re the bad guys for overthrowing a ‘legitimate’ government.
Stavridis is acting what is pejoratively called a ‘neocon’, advocating overthrow of governments we don’t like. Maybe we should overthrow Maduro. He’s wrecked his country. But if the US does, we better be prepared for the downside, or at least willing to own it.
“Meddling†is judgemental and pejorative. Perhaps the US should never have meddled in the Holocaust, given we’re no strangers to genocide. Or pushed childhood inoculations on countries that can’t feed the people they have. Good intentions, ha, famine and war. We do have a security issue in Venezuela, given the displacement of millions of people. But we lack a good plan. The strategy we used in Panama comes to mind, but couldn’t be implemented until Trump is gone, he’d be against it. But when he’s gone, then.
Perhaps.
President Sanders Venezuela policy could be interesting too.
The sad truth is that right now the US military is operating beyond maximum sustainable effort, and we are liquidating our equipment and personnel to do so. That is the meaning of deferred maintenance and reduced training.
None of our flag officers seem to understand the current condition or ability of our military forces. They are sunk in some delusional WW II dream. The facts are that we do not have the ability to invade either Iran or Venezuela. Our ground forces would be destroyed in guerrilla wars. Nicaragua is the most we could do.
The Deep State seems to have cowed Trump, so more military adventures are likely. They will end in defeats. We are likely on the eve of the collapse f Pax Americana. Russia and China will be our heirs.
Deep State Media actually has voters convinced Trump is a war President, at The Hill “one tweet away from thermonuclear warâ€. Hostile media has always been the why he needs Twitter, and they have to attack it as an existential threat.
I have said before I have little insight into his thought processes. Is he reckless, heedless, and impulsive or calculating? I have no idea and from what I can tell where you stand depends mostly on where you sit. Sometimes there are claims of both simultaneously in a single sentence.
He is impulsive with language, but will hold a grudge for years. That infers calculation. He seems at his rally’s to simply be letting rambling thoughts have voice. But his actions are calculated. I believe I’ve heard him say that he doesn’t like to overthink things, neither do I. Although it generally helps to sleep on it.
“He is impulsive with language, but will hold a grudge for years. That infers calculation. ”
In anyone else we would consider that pettiness, but when you are best POTUS ever you call it calculation.
” I believe I’ve heard him say that he doesn’t like to overthink things, neither do I. ”
I think I should try this. Will save lots of time. No more reading journals to keep up or attending classes or organizing them. Just go with our gut feelings on everything, after watching Fox.
Steve