I wish more people recognized the reality of what Sarah Zhang says in her piece in The Atlantic on the most likely scenario for COVID-19:
The coronavirus is simply too widespread and too transmissible. The most likely scenario, experts say, is that the pandemic ends at some point—because enough people have been either infected or vaccinated—but the virus continues to circulate in lower levels around the globe. Cases will wax and wane over time. Outbreaks will pop up here and there. Even when a much-anticipated vaccine arrives, it is likely to only suppress but never completely eradicate the virus. (For context, consider that vaccines exist for more than a dozen human viruses but only one, smallpox, has ever been eradicated from the planet, and that took 15 years of immense global coordination.) We will probably be living with this virus for the rest of our lives.
I have thought that since January. The conclusion I draw is not that we’ll be in lockdown forever but that we’ll accept a higher level of risk. And that will be true whether a vaccine is developed and effective treatments are found or not.
It’s also why I think that elected officials like Illinois Gov. Pritzker, who has been warning about the need to tighten up on the restrictions he’s (illegally) imposed despite the reality that there are no signs that COVID-19 is threatening the health care system but there’s loads of evidence that the restrictions are hurting people financially, are either fools, cowards, or malicious. I don’t think he’s a fool.
My bet has been that we will have this for quite a while. I ordered my own PAPR months ago. Just received a notice it is shipping today. Do not trust the market or our current government to provide adequate PPE so will make sure I am OK by my own efforts. We did the same for everyone in our group who wanted one. One of the failures of the effort dealing with Covid has been making it clear that this is probably a long term thing and we needed to engage in the effort to address that. Things like masks.
Steve
I have never entertained the possibility that COVID would be completely eradicated. Managing the symptoms through therapeutics seemed to be a better goal. Also, assuaging the fear of those always on edge of getting it is vitally important to release the country from it’s economic/educational paralysis. The mental, physical health delays and academic losses caused by COVID blinders will prove to have caused more deaths and damage than the virus itself.
LOL
I’ve been saying this since early days. Which made total lockdown a bizarre and untenable strategy all along. We are simply time shifting infection.
Apparently Steve wants to hop on the bandwagon now.
‘Apparently Steve wants to hop on the bandwagon now.’
As I recall from previous comments by Steve on earlier threads he and his organization early on were heavily into recycling PPE and I believe they were even making some, under the reasonable assumption they would be needed later on not only by them but other health organizations (to whom they could sell, thus bypassing the made-in-China bottleneck).
Doing anything is a risk. A poor woman in Delaware as TS Isaias was passing by stepped out of her house and was crushed by a falling tree. It should have been the media’s job to inform and let the people and their governors assess risk soberly. Instead we got the world-is-coming-to-an-end clickbait hysteria (and still are). So it’s no surprise that lots of people including authorities mismanaged the level of risk (and still are). Plus most politicians are buck-passing venal cowards at heart. And when they’re playing with house money that can have catastrophic results.
I take a more optimistic/grim look at where we are at. A number of states in the country probably already exceed 20% of the population having been infected, namely New Jersey, Arizona, New York, Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida. They haven’t reached herd immunity, but given some underlying immunity/resistance, the spread is going to slow down in many places. People will go out more, and the infections will rise, then slow, etc.
With relatively low reproduction rates, a vaccine will at worse keep the infection to a low simmer until a new corona virus appears, or at best making it an obscure health care foot note until a new corona virus appears. My hope is the investment in various vaccine technologies will be better prepared next time.
” I believe they were even making some, under the reasonable assumption they would be needed later on not only by them but other health organizations”
Yes. Our mask has received favorable comments from NIOSH. Just waiting on final approval. We plan on selling some but will also give out some to the local nursing homes. Hope to save a lot of admissions. Some of the first responders could use some also. This has always been a long term plan for us.
“The mental, physical health delays and academic losses caused by COVID blinders will prove to have caused more deaths and damage than the virus itself.”
You know we can actually track excess deaths dont you? So far they match up pretty well with Covid deaths.
Steve
In other words, and I quote:
It is what it is.
Donald J Trump
Nice, Gray.