The hand-wringing over the “omicron” variant of COVID-19 has achieved epic proportions. Every outlet I frequent now has multiple articles and opinion pieces offering varying, conflicting, and mostly counter-productive advice. Here’s my view:
- Contracting COVID-19 is stochastic not deterministic.
- How long immunization is effective whether through having previously contracted COVID-19 or inoculation against it is stochastic not deterministic.
- Asymptomatic transmission is possible.
- There is no perfect failsafe treatment for COVID-19.
- The virus mutates fairly rapidly.
As long as those five facts remains true, we can’t seal the virus out, we can’t lock it out, and “zero COVID” is simply not possible. Our focus now should be living with the risk of COVID-19 rather than trying to reduce the risk to zero.
I’m not sure about 5, it mutates fairly rapidly requires context. Relative to what? Or more importantly, does it mutate in a way that matters?
This is a pre-print posted a few days ago which compares immunization from vaccination or infection against variants. The odds of a person fully vaccinated getting infected from the more recent variants of concern are greater than from the alpha variant. Such an individual is 1.9 times more likely to be infected by the delta variant than by the alpha variant:
“An [odds ration] for Delta of 1.9 implicates a reduction of vaccine effectiveness from 90% to 80%, which has been shown in the UK. Current literature still shows high vaccine effectiveness of 90-95% against severe COVID-19 for the Delta variant, which is reassuring. However, note that with very high vaccine effectiveness, a difference of a factor 1.5-2.0 between two variants could go unnoticed, as it would only mean a decrease of effectiveness of 95 to 92%.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.24.21266735v1.full
I think what that is describing are small relative advantage by which a given mutation can become dominant against previous variants without much relevance to the vaccinated.
The only virus that has been eradicated in the wild is variola, the virus that causes smallpox. If it had mutated as quickly as COVID-19 does, it’s pretty obvious it would still be rampant.
Like your last paragraph PD. Was trying to explain to someone else and it came out Klutzy. You said it much better. When asked why we haven’t developed a more targeted vaccine for Delta I said because we dont really need it as we wouldn’t gain much and we should wait until we see a variant that looks like cases a clinically significant increase in serious illness. Meanwhile we should still be looking to see if it is possible to develop a sterilizing vaccine.
On mutation rate my sense is that compared with other viruses covid is not an especially fast mutater. It is interesting that two of the mutations occurred, IIRC, at the furin cleavage site. I had thought one of the claims of the “virus was created in the lab” crew was that activity at that site had to be lab related.
Overall, too early to know much. In a couple of weeks we should know if it is more infectious and also have a better idea of its mortality and morbidity numbers. (I am having trouble thinking of a perfect failsafe treatment for anything.)
Steve
And the markets are not fretting about the Omnicron variant, but about government response to it, which at this point should be to gather information and wait.
But government being government, their actions could be catastrophic.
Virology twitter was stating the Omicron variant has 30+ mutations in the S-spike protein compared to wildtype. In comparison, Delta had 2 mutations in the S-spike protein.
The concern relates to an assumption that has underlined every approved Western vaccine and monoclonal antibody treatments. From pre-pandemic research on coronaviruses, it was believed the S-spike protein is determinative to coronavirus’s virulence and transmissibility. Flowing from that is that mutations are rare in the S-spike, and if they occur, would make the virus less virulent/transmissable (ie. less dangerous). So vaccines and treatments focus on blocking or teaching the body the recognize the wildtype S-spike only.
This is the key difference between COVID vaccines vs traditional vaccines like smallpox, polio, flu. Those vaccines contained attenuated/inactivated virions, so the body would recognize multiple parts of virus.
If the assumption is wrong, that would imply treatments targeting the wildtype S-spike could be ineffective against the Omicron variant.
I like to believe scientist have carefully vetted this assumption. But we will find out soon. By the way, the assumption will be hard to prove from African data. Most pre-existing immunity in Africa is from natural infection, and that would teach immune systems about the whole virus, not just the S-spike.
As a followup, my comment should not be taken as an endorsement of natural immunity.
Its another reminder we need to invest in alternative vaccines, like inactivated/attenuated vaccines in case the bad scenario occurs.
Thus far, the virus has mutated exactly as would be expected (more contagious, less virulent) despite it being a laboratory-manipulated pathogen. The “wild card” is the vaccine. Consequently, it can’t be said how/if the vaccinated will respond appropriately/adequately to any variant.
According to Physicians in S. Africa symptoms have been mild, treated at home with no hospitalizations yet. Overall, though, this country has a low vaccination rate along with a low number of cases and deaths. It’s strange to me, then, that this is where a new variant would suddenly pop up.
BTW, people testing positive for this new variant have all been vaccinated.
@steve, Moderna did a comparative study of the effect of a boost of original blend and an updated blend, and found no difference in their effectiveness against variants. I think Pfizer did the same thing. That’s the simplest explanation — the boost improves breadth of response against all variants and it wouldn’t make sense to develop and manufacture a new version with no added benefit.
The other question is whether the boost’s improved is simply from being another dose, or if it addresses an issue with the timing of the original two-doses (two/three week intervals being the quickest timing, not the best timing). To the extent its the later, any subsequent boosts won’t have as much effect.
The following public testimony is what will not be found in the legacy press and social media sites:
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/idaho-nurse-explains-what-shes-seeing-in-hospital/
I thought Moderna/Pfizer both showed updated variant-specific shots were more effective against that specific-variant, but not so much that to outweigh the considerable issues of changing the shot.
If your mental model is COVID-19 acts similarly to influenza — then you see the issues. Influenza vaccines mutate enough that shots can have variable protection from 80% to 20% depending on the year. And the reason is its variable is the influenza mutates so fast that the experts have to guess which strain will be the predominant one 6 months in the future to produce enough to vaccine for the population when it is needed.
Say if Omicron by reduces vaccine efficiency from 90% down to 60%, and they need to develop a new shot. Moderna/Pfizer says they can finish design and test in 90 days. Lets say they manufacture during those 90 days. After 90 days there is still the distribution and administration which take another 90 days. That’s 180 days before the population is sufficiently protected — by that time the Omicron variant has done its damage. As a reference, Delta was labeled a variant of concern in May and it peaked in the US by Oct.
For those who clicked on jan’s link Idaho is reporting that the large majority of its hospitalized pts are unvaccinated, especially the ones in the ICUs. That is consistent with the rest of the country and the rest of the world. Like most of these disinformation videos they never specify what “treatments” are killing people and how they do it.
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article255528586.html
Steve
PS- I am sure the local papers in Idaho are all in on the secret plot.
The definition of “vaccinated,†like every other data measurement has been revised. Now a truly vaccinated person has had both shots (some places may include the booster), plus having a full 2 weeks time lapse from having received their full complement of shots to be labeled “vaccinated.†In many cases people are roiled with symptoms within hours, days or a few weeks after complying with these vaccinations. These people are then classified as “unvaccinated.â€
Regarding the spread of misinformation, one just has to look at the CDC and FDA’s erratic record of data keeping and guidance, which is then fanned by the incurious press. In MI, for example, there are articles about COVID infections and hospitalizations raising, with Biden having to send in medical reinforcements. When comparing this year to last year’s data, however, there is very little difference. And, the stories about health resources being stretched in MI is because of workers leaving or being fired by not taking the mandated jab.
As for that nurse in Idaho – there are many ordinary, on-the-ground nurses and physicians who are saying the same thing, dealing with their local hospital work places. Oftentimes, though, they are censored or suspended for being a whistleblower. And, the mainstream media simply ignores their claims, while they print or talk glowingly about how successful the vaccines are.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/different-perspective-how-threat-free-are-americans-covid-19
â€Presumed recovered: 45,265,569
Active cases: 1,118,866
Percent of total cases presumed recovered: 96.0%
Percent of total cases that are active: 2.4%
Percent of the total U.S. population with active cases of Covid: over 0.3%
Percent of the U.S. population to have died with or from Covid-19: over 0.2%
Percent of the U.S. population posing no threat of passing along COVID-19: nearly 99.7%â€
The most sensible thing I’ve read in months.