I probably should write something on President Trump’s abandoning the deal cut by President Obama with Iran. The editors of the Wall Street Journal declaim:
The Obama Administration spent years negotiating a lopsided pact that gave Tehran $100 billion of sanctions relief and a chance to revive its nuclear-weapons program after a 15-year waiting period. Instead of cutting off “all of Iran’s pathways to a bomb†as Mr. Obama claimed, the deal delayed the country’s entry into the nuclear club and gave the mullahs cash to fund their Middle East adventurism.
I was skeptical of the deal negotiated by the Obama Administration because I thought it rested on intellectually shaky grounds, was probably not as good a deal as could have been negotiated, and, at least to my eye, seemed to take the position that any deal was better than no deal.
In what may seem a paradox to some I’m equally if not more skeptical of Trump’s abrogation of the deal. Think of it this way. You cut a deal with someone. You give them $10 and every day for 15 years they give you a token. How much is the token worth? You don’t know. It might be worth nothing; it might be worth a billion dollars. You’ve already given them the $10. The benefits if there are benefits simply accrue over time.
The $100 billion was already doled out and I don’t think that President Trump has made the case that leaving the deal in place is doing us any harm. If there are benefits, they will only accrue over time. What have we gained by abandoning the deal? It isn’t more security or peace of mind or a freer hand.
Withdrawing is bad because it shows the US cannot keep its word on nuclear proliferation deals. Add Iran to Libya; why should North Korea trust the US?
Observing the terms of an agreement is as important as negotiating a deal. Like JCPOA or not; Iran has observed the terms of the deal, it’s something to be built upon, not torn down.
It’s also a good reminder of the folly of entering an agreement with the executive of the United States without Congressional involvement. The League of Nations is of course the famous example but far from the only one.
I supported the Iran deal initially and agree with you that this move doesn’t make much strategic sense. In terms of domestic politics and Trump scratching backs, it makes perfect sense.
The deal was between Obama and Iran. If Obama wanted a permanent deal, he should have had it ratified. This is no different than Bush supporters whining because Bush did not create a permanent deal with Iraq.
This is not about the deal. It’s about varmint control.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DzcOCyHDqc
Tasty gets it right. I don’t believe NK or anyone else is so stupid as to not understand the deal was a political legacy deal and subject to the worldview of the next administration.
Dave is correct in that spilled milk is spilled. All one can do is grouse about the money the incompetent Obama admin gave away.
As for the treaty, the inspection provisions are a farce. People get rid of deals because they are bad, or because they feel they can redo them. Trump is clearly saying redo because I haven’t lost squat by getting out of the last one.
It was a deal between Iran and a bunch of other countries. Looked to me like Russia and China were about to bolt on sanctions. Absent their participation, Iran didn’t need any deal. If you thought that Iran was really contemplating nukes, it was a good deal. If not, then no deal was needed.
Steve
That this was an executive agreement that could be overturned by any future President is obvious and doing so is certainly within Trump’s authority. The wisdom of doing so is another matter as this move does not get the US anything, nor does it do anything to address the complaints of people who didn’t like the deal to begin with.
But Trump, ever the grifter, may be playing an angle here. This may be about business and not international nuclear security. Trump can now use the threat of sanctions against parties that do business with Iran to extract concessions from them. Boeing is already saying it wants a “level playing field” with Airbus when it comes to replacing Iran’s aging civil aircraft fleet.