Did the Bear Do It?

There’s an interesting post at Minyanville suggesting that Russian actions in response to U. S. sanctions may have produced a decline in the dollar:

I calculated the expected return on the yen for that week’s market movements. It was for a gain of 0.90%; the actual gain was 0.82%, well within reason. The dollar behaved much differently than expected; it declined 1.00% when it should have rallied close to 3.10%.

Why the discrepancy? One reason proffered is markets expected the Federal Reserve to reverse its tapering policy. That seems unlikely as that move would put its already wishy-washy reputation one step closer toward a complete lack of policy continuity. I think the real reason is a tad more sinister and even a little juicy for those into the cloak-and-dagger stuff.

Please recall a massive decline in custody holdings at the Federal Reserve at the start of the Ukrainian situation. Apparently someone in Moscow thought leaving Russian funds in the custody of the US central bank might be seen as a little careless among an unforgiving audience. What if the same thing happened with stocks as things started to heat up in eastern Ukraine? A motivated seller of US stocks liquidated, and instead of keeping the funds in greenbacks put them into another currency. This might explain why the dollar declined at a time when it should have increased.

It’s intriguing but I can’t say I’m convinced. You need more than motive and means to prove a crime.

1 comment… add one

  • Guarneri

    “And today the Dow Jones Average declined by 3 points as investors became concerned about…”

Leave a Comment