I recommend you read this interview of Iran scholar Kenneth M. Pollack by Tobin Harshaw at Bloomberg. The subject is what’s next with Iran now that we’ve abrogated Obama’s “Iran deal”? Here are two snippets, the first on Iraq:
Iraq is harder, but just as important. It is one of the most important Arab states and the vast majority of Iraqis hate Iran, but we have allowed Iran to become the most influential external power there out of sheer neglect. If we are willing to maintain a sizable American military presence there (as we should have in 2011) and are willing to make a long-term commitment to help Iraq economically (say $1 billion to $2 billion per year for five years) we will be in a position to help nationalistic Iraqi leaders who have tried to stand up to Tehran but failed largely because they did not have our help. That remains true even after Iraq’s recent elections.
I think that’s wishful thinking. Whatever Iraqis think, because of its Shi’ite majority it will always be viewed as leaning towards Iran by the Gulf Arabs. Regardless of the truth our policy will always be colored by that. IMO the truth is more that Iraq is a threat to the Iranian mullah regime than the other way around.
But his remarks on Yemen ring true to me:
Yemen is harder still. There the most important things are to get our Saudi allies unstuck and convince the Houthis to evict their Iranian advisers. In a nutshell, the best prospect we have to do both is to help the Saudi-led military coalition to take the port of Hudaydah, the last and most important under Houthi control. Then, with that military victory in hand, convince them to offer a generous political deal to the Houthis, one largely along the lines of what the Houthis demanded at the start of the civil war. In return, we/they would demand an end to the war and an end to the Iranian presence.
What we need to keep in mind is that Iran’s influence on the Houthis has always been highly exaggerated. Absent Saudi aggression in Yemen would there be Iranian advisors there?
On the first part, this is just a variant on “if we stay in Iraq long enough it will become Sweden”. Aint happening. It surprises me that you agree with the author that we ought to help Saudi Arabia attack Yemen.
Steve
The Iraqi election was continues a strong record that a plurality if not a majority of Iraqis would prefer Iraq to be neutral like Switzerland or Austria; not aligned with Iran, Saudi Arabia or the US.
The Iranians keep forgetting Shiite Iraqis are Arabs too.
I thought this article thought provoking, through I don’t what biases Al-Monitor has.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/04/dueling-ayatollahs-sistani-khamenei-shiite-iran-iraq.html