This account of Winston Churchill’s excursion into alternate history makes interesting reading.
I find his scenario a bit far-fetched. I think the only way the South could have won would have been to force a stalemate by enlisting active intervention by foreign governments, particularly on the sea and that would have been a long shot. Ultimately, I think the South was always doomed.
(18th paragraph)
I stopped reading at this line. The large land barons would never relinquish their power base or amassed wealth. Had the South won, I posit that the governmental structure would have altered.
The land barons would have expanded and consolidated their holdings, but unlike the industrialists of the North, they would likely have employed a large amount of force. There would likely also have been a political purge to coincide with this.
During chaos, there is opportunity.
I skimmed it and thought it mentioned Lee way too much.
I’m in Cincinnati, the city Churchill thought the most beautiful of America’s inland cities. Hmmmmm . . .
Have a good time in Cincinnati. You could be the first. 😉
Gettysburg was too late — defeat would have embarassing for the North in some ways, but the Army of the Potomac would still have been larger than Lee’s force and there were additional Federal troops in Baltimore and other eastern cities which could have been pulled in to cover Washington. Lee would not have been in position to force the Union to surrender.
Moreover, Grant had already won at Vicksburg on the second day of Gettysburg, an event with major strategic consequence since it severed the central and eastern portion of the Confederacy from the west. And that was an advantage the North never gave up.
OTOH… suppose a copy of Lee’s General Order 109 had not gone astray in 1962, leading to Confederate victory at Antietam. No US victory at Antietam, no Emancipation Proclaimation. It’s concievable that France and/or Britian might have recognized the South under those circumstances; it’s also concievable that Maryland and maybe one or two border states might have left the Union for the Confederacy (or at least made some noises about doing so).
Actually, lots of military historians think the South could have won. At the time of the war, many thought the South would win. If they had chosen to fight a defensive war, they wold have had a much better chance.
Steve
As it happens, I’m reading Turtledove’s series positing a victory and the century following it. I’m enjoying it a great deal. The last four are not available in audiobook, which will present a problem for me, time wise. (At this point, though, Turtledove is mostly moving events in Europe to North America.)
I think the south could have won – like Steve says – by fighting a defensive war.