A dizzying array of claims and counter-claims are being made about Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian Su-24 bomber. CNN reports that Turkey is repeating its claim that the Russians violated Turkish airspace and the Russian aircraft was shot down in self-defense, along with a somewhat bizarre expansion:
Erdogan said Friday that Turkey didn’t initially know the nationality of the warplane shot down.
“Turkey did not shoot down Russian plane on purpose. This was only an automatic reaction to a border breach. This is an exercise of the rules of engagement. The nationality of these planes who are flying towards our border were unknown despite the warnings,” Erdogan said. “It is impossible to know this at that time.”
The Russians for their part have made some interesting counter-claims, as explained in this post at zerohedge. Summarizing the Russians’ claims:
- The Russian aircraft received no warning of any kind prior to being shot down.
- The Russians had given their flight plan to the Americans well in advance.
- Russian radar monitoring data suggest that the Turkish fighter must have set out to intercept the Russian plan before it was visible on Turkish radar.
- Consequently, the most likely scenario is that the Turks ambushed the Russian plane with the assistance of information provided by the Americans.
- The Russian plane was returning from the border when it was attacked by the Turks and therefore did not constitute a threat.
- Which means that the Turks committed a war crime.
- That the shooting down of the plane was videoed from the ground suggests preparation.
- That the recovery of the pilot’s body by terrorist forces on the ground was videoed also suggests preparation.
I think what we really need now is some U. S. satellite imaging or radar monitoring data that confirms the Turks’ side of the story. Absent that the preponderance of the evidence suggests the Russians are right.
What if the Russians are right?
I thought from the start that the Turkish story smelled like week-old fish.
It’s a pretty amazing feat, really, managing to spot, react to and knock down a plane that was evidently over Turkish territory for a maximum of a couple seconds.
What’s telling is how little support the story has had from American sources so far. I’d bet there’s a very interesting behind-the-scenes story here that we may never know about. If we have evidence, and if we are suppressing it, then I wonder what we’d ask of the Turks in exchange.
The Russian accusations are becoming quite comical. Turkey doesn’t need any assistance to shoot down an airplane on its own border.
To me this is all pretty simple. Russian aircraft repeatedly violated Turkey’s border over the last couple of months. Most, if not all of these, were likely accidents (pictures of the Russian SU-24 aircraft show garmin handheld GPS units mounted in the cockpit – indicating these aircraft haven’t had a modern navigation upgrade). In response Turkey publicly stated they would shoot down Russian aircraft who continued to stray…and that’s exactly what they did.
A few things to note:
– About a dozen NATO countries have bilateral agreements to avoid military incidents with Russia – Turkey is not one of them.
– Neither country sought to negotiate such an agreement.
– Russia continued to fly close to Turkey’s borders despite Turkish warnings and shitty Russian nav equipment. What did they think would happen? The US, by contrast, typically restricts flights near borders to avoid unintended violations.
– Turkey was dumb enough to carry out its previous threat – damn the consequences.
– Turkey still remembers the 2012 shootdown of a Turkish F-4 by Syrian air defenses. Conspiratorial Turks believe they Syrians had Russian help or that the operation was controlled by Russia (sound familiar)?
“1. The Russian aircraft received no warning of any kind prior to being shot down.”
Are the Russians also denying that Turkey, particularly through its Ambassador, had repeatedly warned them against incursions on Turkish airspace as part of its bombing campaign on the border? I don’t think it is quite so easy to dismiss the implications of this for Turkey. Russia does not appear to have the capacity to distinguish the border during flights, but are expected to have the capacity to distinguish the border during bombings? I do not believe the U.S. would act much differently if another country was bombing along the Southern border. Not on the basis of a single flight, but we would warn that any such future actions would be considered a threat to American safety, and I believe that warning would be acknowledged as credible and we wouldn’t have this problem.
“2. The Russians had given their flight plan to the Americans well in advance.”
Despite deep disagreements btw/ the Russians and Americans on Syria, they clearly decided to share flight information to avoid a conflict with each other. Despite this we now have the beginnings of a conspiracy theory by which the Russians will reject the American claims that the Russian plane was warned ten times in five minutes to steer away from the border.
“3. Russian radar monitoring data suggest that the Turkish fighter must have set out to intercept the Russian plan before it was visible on Turkish radar.”
I do not know what basis to judge Russian knowledge of what Turkish radar can track, but the Russian assumptions merely indicate that the Turkish fighter was already in the air. Again, I believe the U.S. would have fighters patrolling the border in a similar situation.
“4. Consequently, the most likely scenario is that the Turks ambushed the Russian plane with the assistance of information provided by the Americans.”
No, the most likely scenario is that the Russians are conducting so many bombing missions along the Turkish border that such an encounter should be predictable. Unfortunately this sounds like a bit of Russian pride that backward Turks could have shot down one of their fighters.
“5. The Russian plane was returning from the border when it was attacked by the Turks and therefore did not constitute a threat.”
This appears to assume that the Turks knew the flight plan and when all of the bombs had been dropped.
“6. Which means that the Turks committed a war crime.”
One would have to believe that the Russians were never warned even well in advance of this flight to not conduct military operations over Turkish airspace and that the Russians never violated Turkish airspace. I don’t see any legal relevance to this planned conspiracy notion to whether a war crime was committed.
“7. That the shooting down of the plane was videoed from the ground suggests preparation.”
No, it suggests that the UN and NGO complaints about Russians targeting civilians, and civilian infrastructure have galvanized Syrians to record Russian actions either for propaganda purposes are in the naive belief that there will be some war crimes tribunal some day.
“8. That the recovery of the pilot’s body by terrorist forces on the ground was videoed also suggests preparation.”
By “terrorist” I assume we mean the people living and fighting in the area over which the Russians came down. I do not know who the Russians would expect to recover the body.
I posted this before reading Andy’s comment, which is better than mine.
Under your scenario, Andy, what’s in it for the Russians to risk a plane and pilots?
Andy: “Turkey was dumb enough to carry out its previous threat – damn the consequences.”
I agree with this, but in some defense of Turkey, in matters of defense of one’s borders there is a principle of acquiescence in which a state loses the right to object to violations of its sovereignty. This is somewhat more problematic here where Syria disputes Turkish annexation of the Hatay province, and Russia is acting as an agent for Syria. Still would be wiser to gradually ratchet up objections and a confrontational posture, but there are incentives here for the Turks to exercise police power over its territory.
I am thinking the Russians were cocky and didn’t think the Turks would actually shoot them down, i.e., they didn’t feel like they were taking a risk.
Steve