Following up on a discussion taking place in comments, there has actually been research on migration to and from California, by the state legislature’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, something like the CBO but at the state level. I’ll summarize what we can conclude from their findings and what we cannot.
What we can conclude is
- The number of people leaving the state exceeds those coming into the state.
- The number of people leaving the state at every age group except those over 65 exceeds the number coming to the state. Over 65 the numbers are about equal.
- At every income level below $110,000 per year the number of those leaving the state exceeds the number coming in. Over that income the number coming into the state is slightly higher. Over $200,000 per year the number coming in is considerably greater than the number leaving.
- At every educational level below post-graduate education the number of people leaving the state exceeds the number coming into the state. The number of people with post-graduate degrees coming into the state exceeds those leaving by a considerable number.
What we cannot conclude is
- Whether the amount of income leaving the state is larger than the amount of income coming into the state, less, or the same.
- How significant the number of people who do not file income tax returns is in analyzing the entire picture. That is true because the analysis in the article is derived from income tax returns.
Those are interesting stats regarding the fluid state of Californians leaving the state, vs newbies coming in.
With SALT being implemented, along with so many democrat pie-in-the-sky programs being promised, I think more and more “workers” will find it prohibitive to live here. Already, this year’s tax revenues are not meeting the expectations of the new governor, creating rumors of another round of miscellaneous taxes being considered on the horizon. I also think our heretofore protection from out-of- control property taxation, via Howard Jarvis legislation, will be challenged in order to gin up more money for our reckless state to spend.
If our roots here were not so deep, we would leave in a heart beat.
Remember that the CA income tax is progressive. According to an article in the San Diego Tribune, try to think it later, those leaving are mostly earning less than $55,000. At that level of income the tax rate is well below the 13% rate usually talked about. Those moving in are wealthier, so they face higher tax rates. Just based on the numbers, it is difficult to make the case that people are leaving CA due to taxes, especially since they are moving to a higher tax state like Texas.
https://www.tax-brackets.org/californiataxtable
Steve
I have not made that case; indeed, I avoid making assessments about states other than my own. Most of my wife’s family lives in California and eyes on the ground tell me that the state is becoming a two-class society of the very rich on the one hand and the very poor on the other.
I can speculate. I would speculate that people go to California because they can and leave because they must. I think that Illinois is more nearly the opposite with people going there because they must and leaving because they can.
“I would speculate that people go to California because they can and leave because they must. I think that Illinois is more nearly the opposite with people going there because they must and leaving because they can.”
What a beautifully phrased analysis.