Following up on a discussion taking place in comments, there has actually been research on migration to and from California, by the state legislature’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, something like the CBO but at the state level. I’ll summarize what we can conclude from their findings and what we cannot.
What we can conclude is
- The number of people leaving the state exceeds those coming into the state.
- The number of people leaving the state at every age group except those over 65 exceeds the number coming to the state. Over 65 the numbers are about equal.
- At every income level below $110,000 per year the number of those leaving the state exceeds the number coming in. Over that income the number coming into the state is slightly higher. Over $200,000 per year the number coming in is considerably greater than the number leaving.
- At every educational level below post-graduate education the number of people leaving the state exceeds the number coming into the state. The number of people with post-graduate degrees coming into the state exceeds those leaving by a considerable number.
What we cannot conclude is
- Whether the amount of income leaving the state is larger than the amount of income coming into the state, less, or the same.
- How significant the number of people who do not file income tax returns is in analyzing the entire picture. That is true because the analysis in the article is derived from income tax returns.