After last night’s primary election results there are three candidates vying for the Republican nomination: Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. Present signs suggest that Trump and Cruz will continue to attack each other and Kasich although there have been a few signs recently that Trump is turning his sights on Hillary Clinton.
There’s more than one way to analyze this, of course.
I see John Kasich as an establishment Republican although not as firmly entrenched in that establishment as, say, Marco Rubio was. IMO of the three he’d be the most likely to make a decent enough president. I think he represents the pragmatic wing of the Republican Party and his small showings suggest that faction isn’t completely moribund but near to it.
I think that Ted Cruz represents social conservatives, particularly white evangelicals, along with a scattering of fiscally conservative, small government conservatives who are just tired of the present Republican establishment and feel betrayed by it.
My opinion of Donald Trump’s supporters is that they’re the refusenik, “throw the bums out” faction not only of the Republican Party but also attracting some people who routinely vote Democratic. I think that’s the most likely explanation for the turnout numbers being reported.
If that’s the case, realignment of the Republican Party is really the worst case scenario not just for the Republican establishment but for Democrats if not for the country. I have a pretty good idea of what that newly realigned Republican Party would be against but I have no sense whatever for what it would be for.