Gallup is reporting that Americans have a strong anti-incumbent mood these days:
PRINCETON, NJ — The environment for congressional incumbents seeking re-election may be more challenging in 2014. With six months to go before the midterms, 22% of U.S. registered voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election, and 72% say they do not. The “deserve re-election” figure is on pace to be the lowest Gallup has measured in an election year.
Support for their own Congressmen points to the possibility of many incumbents losing their seats:
U.S. voters as a whole are more positive about their own member of Congress than about most members of Congress, as they have been since Gallup first asked these items in 1992. Currently, 50% of voters say their own member deserves re-election. This, too, is slightly more positive than in January (46%), but is similar to levels observed at the time of the elections in 1992, 1994, 2006, and 2010. Most of these years saw relatively high turnover in Congress.
This election will turn on who can bring out their voters. Negative advertising, the tool of choice these days, is not a particularly good one for energizing turnout.