Let’s assume, as seems likely, that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, respectively. What should we think about the polls that are coming out?
My opinion is not much. We need to keep several things in mind. First, it’s a long time until the election. Nearly six months. That’s an eternity in political time. Even in an ordinary quadrennial election year, the polls are practically meaningless this far ahead as are the results of the primaries as predictors for the outcome in the general election.
Second, it’s not an ordinary quadrennial election year. Have we ever had two candidates with such high name recognition and such low approval ratings? IMO those who point to a handful of points difference between the candidates are whistling in the dark. I don’t think anybody really has any idea what the heck is going to happen.
Third, we don’t elect presidents at large. We elect them state by state. In order to win in November Hillary Clinton must either hold all of the states carried by Barack Obama in 2012 or lose some of those states while picking up others. In order to win in November Donald Trump must peel off some of the states carried by Barack Obama in 2012. Rather than looking at national polls, consider those for states that are likely targets for that kind of turnaround.
While I agree with you, watching the polls can be a lot of fun if you aren’t invested. (I’m not, as this isn’t my country any more.)
For example, according to some poll (WaPo, perhaps?) Hillary is polling six percentage points LOWER than Obama did in 2012 – with whites. No wonder Obama and Ryan want to give all the illegals citizenship before the November vote, but those folks don’t turn out. Hillary can’t afford to get that out of sorts with her own people. She’d have to double (at least) Obama’s output with black voters to overcome that, and that ain’t happening.
Apparently Trump is also moving past her in terms of favorability ratings – with independents! Doh!
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Non-poll-related silliness from the election season. Check out Reason Magazine and you will see that not only can Trump not win the election this fall, neither can any Republican. Nor can any Democrat! Apparently everyone at Reason is smoking dope, taking meth, and doing bath salts all at the same time, because they think the Libertarians are going to get about 200,000 percent of the vote in November. Lots more stupid than usual with the libertarians this year!