I’ve already commented on what the president said in his State of the Union address this year and on what happened and didn’t happen. But I think there were quite a few things that weren’t said and probably needed to be.
Education
What the president did say: more young Americans should study science and math.
What the president didn’t say:
Why? Science and math are hard work and the technology sector is sluggish. Jobs aren’t growing there the way they were, salaries have slowed, and job security is, frankly, pretty lousy. The only technology area that’s really thriving right now is biomed and that’s because it’s highly subsidized and protected from overseas competition. If you want kids to be interested in math and science, they have to believe that they can have good lives by pursuing those studies. That will go a lot farther towards the goal than subsidizing science and math education will.
Energy Policy
What the president did say: we should be independent of Middle Eastern oil
What the president didn’t say:
How? There is a world market for oil. The Middle Eastern oil-producers are enormous producers of oil and will be for the foreseeable future. As such they influence oil prices regardless of where we get our oil, foreign or domestic. We can’t really become independent of Middle Eastern oil without becoming independent of oil full stop. That won’t happen for the foreseeable future because for the foreseeable future there is no substitute for gasoline as a fuel for vehicles. Ethanol won’t do it: it takes more oil to produce a gallon of ethanol here in the United States than it saves in oil. Bio-diesel won’t do it: the current fleet won’t run on it, the amount of stuff necessary for it to do the trick is impossibly vast, and the relatively low cost of oil makes it prohibitively expensive.
Honesty in government
What the president did say: “A hopeful society expects elected officials to uphold the public trust. ”
What the president didn’t say:
Who? The sad reality is that it’s impossible to get money out of politics without getting politics out of money and neither political party has an ounce of interest in doing this.
Entitlements
What the president did say: “We must also confront the larger challenge of mandatory spending, or entitlements. ”
What the president didn’t say:
What? The overwhelming preponderance of our commitment is not in Social Security (last year we learned that Social Security reform is impossible until the problem is actually upon us) but Medicare and Medicaid. The problem is four times as large and reform will be fought four times as hard. I don’t believe that any reforms will bring Medicare and Medicaid under control without bringing rising health care costs under control.
Health care costs have risen significantly faster than non-health care costs in this country for more than 40 years (since the adoption of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965). “Tort reform” won’t do it: it isn’t a large enough component of the total costs to do much. I’d like to see some actual evidence that “defensive medicine” is a major component of costs.
The actual biggest and fastest growing component in the rise in health care costs is administrative costs. Those can’t be changed without a major overhaul in how health care is delivered and paid for. Health savings accounts and even mandatory (high-deductible) health insurance don’t do anything to reduce the rising administrative costs or the cost of health care itself. It might result in reduced consumption which will of itself not result in lower costs but in more people who delay routine maintenance until they’re seriously ill.
Immigration
What the president did say: “Our nation needs orderly and secure borders. ”
What I said:
Huh? If there’s one thing we’ve learned in recent years about immigration into this country, it’s that there’s no way to have orderly and secure borders without reducing the scope of the problem. More enforcement at the border would be good but not enough. Surely we’ve seen enough tunnels under our borders and shipping containers full of illegals to realize this. A guest worker program will do nothing whatever to reduce this problem.
The Hopeful Society
Hope is good and necessary to life but is of itself insufficient. What is needed even more than hope is the will to make tough decisions about domestic policy issues. And for that I have no hope.
