Now that the House has voted in favor of arming the Syrian rebels:
The House of Representatives voted on Wednesday afternoon to greenlight President Obama’s controversial proposal to arm and train moderate Syrian rebels in effort to defeat the terrorist group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Lawmakers approved the amendment by a 273-156 vote after six hours of debate. The amendment, which includes no new money to pay for the operation, was then incorporated into a larger spending bill that will fund the U.S. government through Dec. 11 and avoid a partial government shutdown.
“As we continue to take targeted military action against ISIL terrorist targets, today’s vote is another step closer to having the authorization to train and equip vetted elements of the moderate Syrian opposition so they can defend themselves against, and ultimately push back on, ISIL forces in Syria, while creating the conditions for the political solution necessary to solve Syria’s crisis once and for all,†Obama said in a statement Wednesday evening. ISIL is an another acronym for the terror group.
Let’s consider a couple of questions. First, how will the Senate vote?
Will the Senate:
- Vote in favor
- Vote against
- Not vote on it
My prediction is that the Senate will narrowly approve the measure. Most or all Republicans will vote in favor of the funding the rebels, Democratic senators in Red states will vote in favor or funding the rebels, the Democratic Senate leadership will vote in favor of supporting the rebels, and most other Democrats will oppose it.
Next question. A year from now what will have happened?
- Nothing much. Things in Syria and Iraq will look much as they do now.
- We will have destroyed ISIS/ISIL
- We will have ground troops fighting ISIS/ISIL because the objective of destroying it can’t be realized otherwise.
- ISIS/ISIL will hold Baghdad
- The objective in arming the Syrian rebels and/or bombing ISIS/ISIL will have been redefined to approximate conditions on the ground more closely
- Something else (specify)
I think that nothing much will be different but there’s a 1:3 chance that ISIS/ISIL will have taken Baghdad.
Somewhere between a and e. The practicalities of trying to arm and train another rebel group will hit home.
Steve
a, Nothing much.
After the election, the crisis will be over. The countries that are supporting ISIS are going to continue to support or to not oppose ISIS. The good rebels will either keep the truce or be taken over/absorbed. ISIS has probably reached its limits.
If the US were really serious, they would impose real sanctions on the countries supporting ISIS. Use Cuba as a model – no trade, no travel, no banking, no foreign aid, no loans, no nothing – for any country supporting ISIS. Period.
Had this policy been instituted on 9/12, ISIS never would have emerged, but why bother about the past? Except for Benghazi.
That’s the sort of thing I mean when I talk about policy. Sanctions against Cuba is a policy. No sanctions against KSA is a policy, too.
I believe I heard the Senate has already approved and that the President is planning to speechify some more.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, but I doubt that there will be any positive outcome in a year.
Something to keep in mind: likely voters as a group are more hawkish than Democratic primary voters as a group.
I have a hard time understanding panic, and most people are just panicking.
I have dealt with some of the dregs of humanity. These were the people you read about in the paper, and they were not the nice ones. Letting they guy who just chopped off a head see you panic is the last thing you want to do. Trust me. He is going to chop off a few more just for laughs, and his buddies are going to get a kick out of it too.
Getting emotional does not improve the situation. If you want to make an impression, you should give advice on how he can improve his technique. He is not going to become your BFF, but the shock phase will be over. To pull it off, you need to be somewhat crazy anyway. Looking back, that might explain a lot.
Now, you start getting into his head. It’s a mind game.
I have a hard time understanding panic, and most people are just panicking.
Yeah, I don’t get it either. These guys are serious, scary guys: If you’re in Iraq or Syria. Maybe a few adjoining countries. But probably not so much in Florida or Iowa.
Yeah, nothing good is going to come from this. The President is dictating military policy that the military is stating as publicly as they can will not work. This is going to be another disaster, because Obama really isn’t a better general than his generals.
Once again, this looks like a fine opportunity for the USA to do nothing, but our leaders are insane for war.