In his latest offering George Friedman declaims that the streams are crossing and that the United States is in for a social crisis, followed by a “massive economic crisis”, followed by a political crisis and a “once every 80 years institutional crisis in the federal government”.
That isn’t the actual point of his piece. His point is that when the U. S. sneezes the world catches a cold.
Here’s his conclusion:
The current political system cannot manage this situation. A solution must emerge now, to be presided over by the next president. It is impossible to explain all the details of a system failure or the need for a new political order. At this point, the only thing that can be said is that we are heading into failure, and a new president, filling everyone with joyous hope, will oversee what must be done. But what must be done remains murky, taking its bearing only from the breadth and seriousness of the failure.
I wish he wouldn’t sugar-coat it like that.
In the short term yes; if the US faces serious disorder; it will be a messy world.
But in the medium, long term – don’t flatter ourselves, the world will move on, and won’t particularly miss a beat. History records Rome died; the Holy Roman Empire died, Imperial China died, the Russian Empire died, the British Empire dissolved; etc, etc, yet here we are.