Walter Russell Mead makes a good point in his most recent Wall Street Journal column—the situation in the Middle East has changed quite a bit in the four years since Barack Obama left office:
Even in the closing weeks of America’s presidential campaign, the grisly murder of French schoolteacher Samuel Paty made an impression. As part of a civics lesson, Mr. Paty showed his class of 13-year-olds the Charlie Hebdo caricatures of the prophet Muhammad. Soon afterward, Mr. Paty was attacked and beheaded in the street. President Emmanuel Macron, whose government has been moving right on law and order as the electoral competition with Marine Le Pen of the National Rally heats up, announced a series of measures aimed at limiting what he called “Islamist separatism.â€
The reaction from Muslim religious and political leaders around the world ranged from supportive (the United Arab Emirates and some imams) to perfunctory (Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) to sulfurous, with Malaysian former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad helpfully tweeting that Muslims had the right to kill “millions of French people†in retribution for French colonialism.
But the most significant reaction came from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is embroiled in confrontations with France in the Eastern Mediterranean. “Macron needs mental treatment,†Mr. Erdogan said, calling for a Turkish boycott against French products. “What is the problem of this person Macron with Muslims and Islam?â€
That a controversy over Islamism should turn into a diplomatic standoff between Turkey and France highlights the dramatic changes in the Middle East and the Mediterranean that the incoming Biden administration will have to address. Since the Democrats were last in office, Saudi Arabia has begun to disengage from the business of supporting radical Islamism, and Turkey and Qatar have picked up the fallen banner. When Europeans these days talk about foreign funding for radical preachers, Turkey is often the source. And when Gulf Arabs like the Emiratis talk about the danger of radical Islamist regimes, they worry more about Turkey even than Iran.
The point here is that the Biden Administration may be confronted with a stark alternative. Either abandon any notion of reopening negotiations with Iran or let long-standing allies hang out to dry so they can start cuddling up to dictators which is much what they’ve been accusing Donald Trump of doing.
Yet more evidence for the point I’ve been making. Erdogan’s Islamist Turkey is not the same country as the secularist Kemalist Turkey that was one of the founding members of NATO. My own view is that while we may have clients in the Middle East we have no allies there in any but a notional sense and are unlikely to get any. He who sups with the devil should use a long spoon.
Iran relations under Biden will be interesting. I assume the desire is to rescind Trump’s rescission of Obama’s agreement. But Iran may not be that interested at this point because a lot of the benefits of the bargain were received during the Obama administration and what’s to prevent Trump from rescinding Biden’s rescission when he’s re-elected in 2024? OTOH, U.S. pressure has hurt the Iranian economy, so they may wish to re-enter the deal, but that would presumably mean Biden has to keep up the pressure for this to happen. On the other other hand, sounds like the D.C. foreign policy establishment would like to enter an entirely new understanding with Iran.
Maybe the coffee hasn’t kicked in yet, but “Either abandon any notion of reopening negotiations with Iran or let long-standing allies hang out to dry…” doesn’t make any sense to me. Is something missing? Abandoning reopening negotiations with Irans IS the same thing as letting allies hang out to dry. That’s what Trump did. The “or” should be an “and,” and there needs to be an alternative to that scenario.
The main dividing line in the modern Middle East seems to be support or opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. The US, Israel, France, Russia, Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and General Haftar and his Libyan National Army all oppose the Brotherhood. They all consider it to be a terrorist organization. Turkey, Qatar and the Libyan Government of National Accord (UN recognized) all support it. Apparently, Iran hasn’t chosen sides, although it has leaned towards supporting the Brotherhood. Obama and his administration supported it. The Brotherhood was their tool to drive the Arab Spring.
So the alternative to Trump’s policy (which hung out our allies to dry) is reopening negotiations with Iran and rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (which supports our allies’ position). Except, of course, for Israel, which supports Trump on this issue. The Obama administration was pro-Muslim Brotherhood, pro-Iran, and anti-Israel, anti-semitic. Many of the people from Obama’s administration will resurface in Biden’s, and they will pursue Obama’s policies in the Middle East.
Or at least they will try to. There is a very large pro-Israel block in Congress, perhaps over 400 Representatives and Senators, and they will be able to control Biden’s policies.
Your earlier position is correct. A strong economy at home, trade to our strengths, no permanent allies, only permanent interests.
Problem is, today, global corporate interests supersede national interests.
Who’s going to referee?