I wanted to make one remark about Noah Smith’s recent observation on AI’s “sales pitch”:
“Hi. Do you have a moment? I’m from the Cursed Microwave company. Our product is much better than a traditional microwave. Not only can it automatically and perfectly cook all your food, it also microwaves your whole body, so you and your family are paralyzed and unable to ever work again. Don’t worry, though, because when everyone has a Cursed Microwave, our society will probably implement Universal Basic Income, and you and your children can just go on welfare! Oh, by the way, we estimate that there’s a 2 to 25 percent chance that our microwaves will put out so much radiation that they destroy the entire human race.”
If a door-to-door salesman gave me this pitch, I would gently see him out the door, and then quickly call the FBI.
Quite to the contrary, it’s a great sales pitch if you define “great” as one that converts paying customers. But neither Mr. Smith nor ordinary people are the intended audience.
It’s a compelling pitch to short-horizon, competition-constrained decision-makers even if the long-term equilibrium is unclear or unstable. Phrasing it more kindly the pitch is:
Using AI you can accomplish the same results you are now with fewer employees. We can improve your bottom line.
It’s perfect when you identify its audience correctly.
