Steven Den Beste over at USS Clueless has had a typically excellent series of posts on the aftermath of the train bombings in Spain and the recent Spanish elections. Keep scrolling. To be honest I don’t think that I share his pessism and those who know me can tell you what an extraordinary statement that is. Perhaps it’s because I wasn’t that optimistic to begin with.
First, I don’t know anything about the intricacies of Spanish electoral politics, the powers of the Spanish Prime Minister, or how the Spanish are likely to react. I do know that although the election was a repudiation of Aznar personally and a defeat for the PP, it wasn’t a rout for the PP. They just lost an absolute majority. If they’re anything like political parties over here they probably won’t roll over and play dead.
Second, pragmatically I don’t think it really makes a great deal of difference to us. We didn’t invade Iraq because we had the support of allies and we won’t withdraw because our allies lose heart. What was the mission of the Spanish forces in Iraq, anyway? I suspect it, like the mission of the U. S. expedition in Haiti during the Clinton administration, was “force protection”. In other words, the mission of the Spanish troops in Iraq may have been to protect the Spanish troops in Iraq. I haven’t seen much in the way of comments on this from anyone actually on the ground. Perhaps someone could direct me to some?
In terms of U. S. electoral politics I suspect a Spanish withdrawal from Iraq will be seen by both sides as bolstering their position. Those opposed to the war in Iraq or the War on Terror generally will say “See, the whole world is against us.” Those who favor the war in Iraq or the War on Terror generally may see it as case in point for how elusive allies are and why we can’t allow ourselves to see our role in either war as dependent on allies.
Third, we really don’t know what the Spanish are actually going to do. The new Prime Minister may be sincere in his pledge to battle terrorism. Or he may just issue a few sternly worded memos, as Mr. Den Beste suggests. Time will tell. The Spanish may benefit from their experiences. Although people tend to keep doing what has been working for them in the past, they are, occasionally, able to learn from experience and adapt to changing circumstances. Let’s hope that this is the case in Spain in particular and Europe, generally.
So enough with the doom and gloom. There’s a war on.
