Could someone explain to me how you reconcile this “scoop” reported by Barak Ravid at Axios:
The Pentagon plans to send Israel tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that had been destined for Ukraine from U.S. emergency stocks several months ago, three Israeli officials with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.
Why it matters: The Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Ministry of Defense told their U.S. counterparts they urgently need artillery shells to prepare for a ground invasion in Gaza — and a potential escalation of the war by Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border, Israeli officials say.
with the White House’s assertion that there is no conflict between U. S. support for Israel and U. S. support for Ukraine?
The editors of the Washington Post echo the president’s remarks:
Delivered at what he appropriately called an inflection point in history, the president’s comments reflect the risk that the United States might abandon its friends, as wars rage in Ukraine and Israel. There is broad support for both countries among the U.S. electorate. A generation of Americans who came of age around 9/11 is wary of more “forever wars,†however. Increasingly isolationist Republicans argue that U.S. resources might be better spent on this continent — 117 House Republicans voted against the most recent Ukraine aid package.
And so it behooved the president to make the links between the two conflicts, as he did in Thursday’s somber address to the nation, and to convince Americans that continued support, for both Ukraine and Israel, is not just a principled stand in defense of democracies under attack — but in the United States’ self-interest. At stake is not only the survival of democracies abroad, however imperfect, but the United States’ long-standing interest in preventing two major regions, Europe and the Middle East, from falling under the sway of hostile hegemons (Russia and Iran, respectively), with the inevitable damage to U.S. security and economic prosperity that would imply. If Russia were to succeed in Ukraine, its next target would probably be a NATO ally, which U.S. troops are committed by treaty to defend. The potential stakes extend to Asia, where successful aggression by Russia or Iran could embolden China to seize Taiwan.
Unfortunately, there is a gap between what you might want to do and what you are able to do. Diverting weapons from Ukraine to Israel sounds like an admission of that limitation to me.
Which of the following are we most likely to do:
- Support Israel and shortchange Ukraine
- Support Ukraine and shortchange Israel
- Attempt to support both and end up shortchanging both, possibly alternately
- Reindustrialize the United States so we can support both
I’m guessing C.
Here’s the follow-up. Which is the greatest U. S. national interest (pick one):
- Israel
- Ukraine
- Taiwan
I say Taiwan.
What isn’t really mentioned in the Axios article.
The shells that are now being sent to Israel instead of Ukraine was originally from an emergency stockpile in Israel that was meant for a Middle East emergency involving Israel (i.e. what is happening now).
Basically the shells went on a giant round trip which points to how (C) is already occurring.
On a related note, the risk for a “surprise” crisis in Asia is heating up. Taiwan has an election in January, with the pro-independence candidate in the lead. Also, things between China and the Philippines have gotten pretty spicy. With two US carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea… imagine if another two carrier groups were needed in Asia.
And there’s always the Korean front; the North Koreans know the US shipped a lot of shells from South Korea for Ukraine (and perhaps Israel); now maybe an opportune time to create a crisis and perhaps extort something out of it.
I hope they had a good time 😉
This post touches on a pet peeve of mine. Policymakers’ ability to relate means to ends is tenuous at best. I attribute it to being in Washington too long.
On a related note.
All the actions the administration is taking assume a war involving Israel will be short. The biggest tell is only requesting $14 billion in the supplemental that Biden is making compared to $60 billion for Ukraine.
I don’t know what informs that assumption, because if Hezbollah / Iran get involved, they can fight a high intensity conflict for quite a while.