I have a bit of a problem with this Wall Street Journal editorial, the second in a series on migration induced by the pandemic. Yes, people are moving. Here’s the meat of the editorial:
The survey ranks the states that drew large shares of move-ins in 2021, with a corresponding list of the biggest losers.
The largest net gain belonged to Vermont, where 74% of moves were inbound. The rest of the top five includes South Dakota (69%), South Carolina (63%), West Virginia (63%) and Florida (62%).
One common theme is affordability. West Virginia, South Dakota and South Carolina all placed in the bottom third of states by median home price, according to the index site World Population Review. Nearly half of the moves into Vermont and Florida that the survey captured were among households earning more than $150,000 a year, likely relocating from pricey spots in the Northeast.
New Jersey was the biggest loser for the fourth consecutive year, with 71% of its moves heading out. Next on the departures list were Illinois (67%), New York (63%), Connecticut (60%) and California (59%). The trend here is easy to spot. The states Americans left in droves are among the most expensive in the country. Home costs are high in part because of zoning and regulations. These states also have some of the highest tax burdens.
The popularity of the Sunbelt is often chalked up to nicer weather, but that can’t account for the trend toward the Idaho, the Great Plains and western New England. No matter the weather, the top states for movers have more open spaces compared with the states that lost residents. This low density often corresponds to lower crime as well as greater resistance to pandemic lockdowns.
Americans vote with their feet, as well as their wallets and ballots. They are sending a message to high-tax, ill-governed states.
While I agree with their premise, I don’t necessarily agree with their conclusion and the reason for that is Indiana. By just about any reckoning Indiana is one of the better-governed states in the Union. Here’s the statistics for Indiana. Basically, the state is holding its own. Slightly more people are inbound than outbound and the majority are 55 or over. In income terms the majority of those inbound are in the top 10% of income earners.
My tentative conclusion from all of this is that people are not optimizing, as the editors would have you believe. Some are minimizing. I think that’s how you explain people moving to South Dakota, South Carolina, and West Virginia. I’m eagerly awaiting the editors’ explanation of people moving to Vermont. To my eye it looks as though whiteness were a better explanation that good governance. Have you ever heard West Virginia touted as a well-governed state?
The root of it is WFH – Marc Andreessen summed it up.
“Finally, possibly the most profound technology-driven change of all — geography, and its bearing on how we live and work. For thousands of years, until the time of COVID, the dominant fact of every productive economy has been that people need to live where we work. The best jobs have always been in the bigger cities, where quality of life is inevitably impaired by the practical constraints of colocation and density. This has also meant that governance of bigger cities can be truly terrible, since people have no choice but to live there if they want the good jobs.
What we have learned — what we were forced to learn — during the COVID lockdowns has permanently shattered these assumptions. It turns out many of the best jobs really can be performed from anywhere, through screens and the internet. It turns out people really can live in a smaller city or a small town or in rural nowhere and still be just as productive as if they lived in a tiny one-room walk-up in a big city. It turns out companies really are capable of organizing and sustaining remote work even — perhaps especially — in the most sophisticated and complex fields.
This is, I believe, a permanent civilizational shift. It is perhaps the most important thing that’s happened in my lifetime, a consequence of the internet that’s maybe even more important than the internet. Permanently divorcing physical location from economic opportunity gives us a real shot at radically expanding the number of good jobs in the world while also dramatically improving quality of life for millions, or billions, of people”
I believe what we are seeing in places like West Virginia. South Dakota are people who grew up there but moved away due to a lack of economic opportunity. They are using WFH to be closer to family and the communities they grew up in.
I’m sure there are many different reasons and motivations. I can’t speak to VT or WV, but I can certainly speak to SC, GA and FL. Taxes, cost of living, regulation and weird social policies are all the people moving here talk about. And the SE has some of the highest black populations going.
I’ll bet the growth in attractiveness in second and third tier cities is also a factor. Indianapolis was a down on its luck place when I was growing up. Now its a very attractive place.
As far as WFH. Sure, but someone in my business also looks at the benefits of co-location wrt team cohesiveness. Zoom meetings only go so far. But again, you can be in Jacksonville, FL just as well as NYC. And that is exactly what is happening with many firms.
I think CO is probably right about part of it being people moving back home. They can move back to help family or be helped. They can WFH and housing can be dirt cheap. When we bought our house in coal country for our practice since there were no hotels we bought it for $40,000. 3BR, 2 baths in pretty good shape. Needed new carpets, cosmetic work. Total cost about $50,000. For that you cant buy much in any major or even minor city.
Why are people leaving Nebraska? Why move to Rhode Island?
Steve
Hi there,
I hope this email finds you well in the new year! My name is Whitney, and I handle public relations for Allied Van Lines, one of the largest relocation companies in the moving industry.
To kick off 2023, Allied Van Lines has released their 2022 Migration Report, which covers the state-to-state relocation of millions of Americans. These migration patterns provide important insight into the overall behavior of Americans looking for the location that best suits their needs, whether they be financial, educational, or occupational. Here is the link: https://www.allied.com/migration-map
In this report, you will find not only an interactive migration map of the United States, but also a list of the top inbound and outbound states, key takeaways that show notable changes in recent years, and regional breakdowns that detail important developments in those particular states.
We thought that your visitors may find this information useful when it comes to an updated outlook on planning for the future, an upcoming move, or even traveling in general. If you happen to be interested in sharing this resource on your site or have any questions at all, please feel free to reach out to me. Thank you for your time and consideration!
Best,
Whitney McGee
Digital PR SpecialistÂ
Â