Jimmy Carter’s pollster, Patrick Caddell, and Bill Clinton’s pollster, Douglas E. Schoen, don’t see much upside in the Congressional Democrats’ pursuit of healthcare reform:
As pollsters to the past two Democratic presidents, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, respectively, we feel compelled to challenge the myths that seem to be prevailing in the political discourse and to once again urge a change in course before it is too late. At stake is the kind of mainstream, common-sense Democratic Party that we believe is crucial to the success of the American enterprise.
Bluntly put, this is the political reality:
First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate’s reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls. Wishing, praying or pretending will not change these outcomes.
The prevailing wisdom in the Congress seems to be that either people will forget about the battle for healthcare reform in November or the plan, when enacted, will prove so popular that a wave of good feeling will flow their way (try it! you’ll like it!) or that their seats are so safe that they have nothing to fear or some other self-ratifying view. It ain’t necessarily so.
I honestly can’t view this debacle with any relish. Republicans haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory over the last decade. And the numbers really do speak for themselves: we genuinely need healthcare reform and the reform we’re likely to get in a panic after we’ve run into the brick wall will undoubtedly be worse than the reform we’d get before the fact which, apparently, is none too good.
For me to support a healthcare reform plan it would need to have four characteristics. It would need to pay for itself over ten years, it would need to start correcting our longterm entitlements problems, it would need to ensure that more people could get healthcare insurance, and it would reduce the percentage of GDP we’re devoting to healthcare. Any plan without those qualities would just be a differently-shaped disaster.
I’m being confronted with the choice of whether I’d prefer to be shot or hanged. I don’t like any of the alternatives. Not even a little bit.
One of the stories Lincoln used to like to tell was about a preacher who told his flock there are two roads for you and you must be careful, because one road goes straight to hell, and the other right to damnation. One parishioner promptly told the man sitting next to him, take whichever road you please, I go “troo de wood.”
I too take to the woods until a middle path appears.
First of all, to answer your question: Shot.
Secondly,
I agree we need healthcare reform, but if the last year proves anything, it’s that there’s no consensus to do what needs to be done and in particular, there isn’t any support for the austerity measures that are required to begin real reform in a huge recession. Usually the drunk has to hit bottom before seeing the light.
The current plan does all but reduce the percent of GDP spent on health care. According to this CBO report, it may even do that after 2019.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=488
I would have added to your list that it should separate health care from employment. Ideally it would also put us on the path to having everyone in the same kind of system, including the Medicare crowd. It then becomes more difficult to separately pander to the older folks.
Steve