It may seem like a contradiction of my previous post but it isn’t actually. At Politico Natasha Korecki, Christopher Cadelago, and Ally Mutnick zero in on an aspect of the unfolding situation in Afghanistan more likely to affect Americans in the near term: how will it affect Democrats’ chances in the mid-term elections?
The cataclysmic series of events over the last several days marked the most devastating period of the Biden presidency, and it comes at the precise moment when a growing number of Americans were already fearful of inflation and doubting Biden’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economy. Now, Biden’s credibility on the world stage is on the line.
It all adds up to a troubling political scenario for Democrats, who had held up their president as a seasoned international statesman, the “adult in the room†who promised to reverse what they viewed as the reckless policies of former President Donald Trump.
We’re going to see a lot of polling over the coming weeks and months. Here’s what I predict they’ll show:
- Most Americans don’t care about foreign policy.
- Most Americans don’t give a darn about Afghanistan or its people one way or another other than vague sympathy but those who care do so loudly and intensely.
- Many commentators will argue whichever way helps their preferred political cause.
- However, advertising works. The longer and more agonistically the media complain and wring their hands over the situation in Afghanistan the more likely Americans are to say that they care about it.
There are tremendous ironies in the “Big Lie” trope that’s being used these days. Most people especially those who use the term don’t realize it was coined by Adolph Hitler (in Mein Kampf). Each side thinks the other is the perpetrator of the Lie. But it’s the media that is actually most responsible for perpetrating Big Lies.
All this by way of saying that if the media manage to keep the Afghanistan story alive, it could well doom Democrats’ chances of holding the House and Senate.
“if the media manage to keep the Afghanistan story alive, it could well doom Democrats’ chances of holding the House and Senate.”
So if the media drops Afghanistan as a story; they will go back to covering…
1) Highest inflation in 30 years
2) A resurgence of COVID, with very least poor communication out of the government (its all the unvaccinated fault, well maybe the vaccines need to be boosted), at worse a capricious and arbitrary nature of response (eviction moratorium off / on, masks needed off / on)
3) A crime surge that doesn’t seem to have easy answers
4) Congress trying to pass a partisan 3.5 trillion dollar bill after passing a partisan 2 trillion dollar bill
5) A border crisis
6) Hot cultural fights like CRT
With Afghanistan, at least Congressional Democrats can say foreign affairs and military execution is primary the President’s responsibility – and Biden isn’t the one on the ballot.
There still the possibility the current agreement between Taliban and the US to have an “orderly” withdrawal breaks down. Then twitter will be lit with videos of US forces fighting their way out of Kabul a la Mogadishu or become hostages a la Tehran. I imagine Americans will care if that happens. I give that a 20% possibility.
This story isn’t over until the last American force + troops are out of there.
I’m not advocating here; I’m just saying what CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, and MSNBC will do. Fox will dwell on the stories you called out.
My point here is that a) things were always uphill for Democrats in the mid-terms; b) recent developments don’t help; c) pushing the Afghanistan story could well be the final nail; d) there’s a conflict between attracting viewership and keeping Democrats in power.
This are the headlines of New York Times outside of Afghanistan as of this moment — that could have political implications.
-Biden Administration to Advise Boosters for Most Americans 8 Months After Vaccination
– American Hospitals Buckle Under Delta, With I.C.U.s Filling Up
– Fifteen percent of the Paycheck Protection Program’s loans may have been taken improperly, a new paper found.
– Business updates: Retail sales fell in July, highlighting the rocky economic recovery
– Can Gov. Newsom Keep His Job? A Recall Effort in California Shows a Dead Heat.
– Politics updates: House Democrats introduced a new bill to beef up the Voting Rights Act.
Except the last one, I don’t see how pushing any of these stories is better for Congressional Democrats then pushing Afghanistan.
The estimates I’ve seen suggest there are 8,000 – 15,000 Americans still in Afghanistan. And there is no way for them to get to an airport. If those Americans start getting shot or paraded around – or some escape but have horror stories to tell – this will be in the press for a long time.
I don’t see how anyone can make predictions until that situation takes on some clarity.
It’s too early to tell. The situation in Afghanistan is emergent. My assessment is we’ll get out the Americans who want out as well as Afghans who can make it to the airport. The Taliban have won and they aren’t stupid – it doesn’t make sense for them to bring on the effects of US firepower by fucking with us. But it certainly still could happen, people are often dumb.
But in general, unless you see scores of Americans die, I don’t think Afghanistan will have any effect since the election is 15 months away. It will be forgotten by then. All the Covid stuff insanity should be over by then too, even though Covid will still be around.
I think the biggest factor will be how the economy plays out. If inflation sticks, or if there continue to be economic disruptions and issues with employment, then the Dems could get shellacked. Even if everything goes well, they will still likely lose both the Senate and House due to cyclical and structural reasons.
plus redistricting.
“All the Covid stuff insanity should be over by then (15 months)”
I really hope so. The last 2 months have drained my optimism…..
This is what I’m talking about. This resonates, and is not easily forgotten. And Jen Psaki chanting “the whole world is watching” doesn’t really cut it.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taliban-meet-protests-in-afghanistan-with-force/ar-AANs12S?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531