There’s an intriguing post on how the U. S., Russian, and Chinese militaries are approaching artificial intelligence at Foreign Policy. Here’s a snippet:
China, the United States, and Russia are each negotiating this fraught landscape differently, in ways responsive to their unique economic and military situations. Governments are motivated to pursue leadership in AI by the promise of gaining a strategic advantage. At this early stage, it’s tough to tell what sort of advantage is at stake, because we don’t know what sort of thing AI will turn out to be. Since AI is a technology, it’s natural to think of it as a mere resource that can assist in attaining one’s goals, perhaps by allowing drones to fly without supervision or increasing the efficiency of supply chains.
But computers could surpass humans in finding optimal ways of organizing and using resources. If so, they might become capable of making high-level strategic decisions. After all, there aren’t material limitations restricting the intelligence of algorithms, like those that restrict the speed of planes or range of rockets. Machines more intelligent than the smartest of humans, with more strategic savvy, are a conceptual possibility that must be reckoned with. China, Russia, and the United States are approaching this possibility in different ways. The statements and research priorities released by major powers reveal how their policymakers think AI’s developmental trajectory will unfold.
Since I was in grad school, “artificial intelligence” has been a grab bag of not particularly related technologies. Artificial neural networks have been around for nearly 80 years. Pattern matching algorithms for at least 60 years. Inference engines and expert systems for around 50 years. Data mining, too, is around 50 years old (although the term “data mining” is only around 30 years old). Indeed, there hasn’t actually been a lot of basic innovations in artificial intelligence.
What has changed is the cost of hardware and the ability of computers to share information. Many unsophisticated people confuse applying old technology using new hardware with new technology. Even some sophisticated people do that.
I think that a lot of how any country applies artificial intelligence to its military depends on two things: what it thinks of its military and how concerned they are about not getting there first. If you don’t think much of your military and you’re very worried about somebody else getting there first, I think you’ll use the strategy that China is. If you think highly of your military but aren’t as worried about somebody else getting there first, you’ll use the strategy that our military is.
