There are no winners in war. One side just loses less than the other. I have refrained from commenting on the ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza because I’m skeptical that it will hold. Since the surviving Israeli hostages have been released I wanted to make some observations about the winners and losers in this conflict.
Winners
- the families and loved ones of the surviving hostages
This goes without saying. They have yearned for it for two years. - President Trump
As we may tire of hearing this is a win for President Trump and he deserves credit for it.
I didn’t list the released hostages themselves as winners because I suspect they will have a long, difficult road ahead of them. They have endured severe physical and psychological hardships during their captivity which will remain with them. Now that they’ve been released some will undoubtedly have “survivor’s guilt” and other forms of post-traumatic stress disorder with which to contend.
Losers
As I see it there are many more losers than there are winners.
- Hamas
Not only have Hamas’s forces, leadership, and other resources been severely degraded but according to PSR their support among Palestinians has declined sharply. - the people living in Gaza
They have suffered innumerable deprivations during the war including food, healthcare, and loss of their homes. I doubt that Gaza will ever return to its pre-2006 state. - Iran
I don’t think you can neatly separate the U. S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities from the war in Gaza. The cost in money to Iran of those attacks are not the only cost. - Gulf Arabs
Something else I do not think can be neatly separated from the war in Gaza is the Israeli attack on Hamas in Qatar. Taken together I suspect that the attack on Iran and Qatar eroded Hamas’s financial support. What has been revealed is that the road to progress in the unrest in the Middle East runs through the Gulf State supporters of radical Islamist violence. Does Turkey still support Hamas? - The U. S. diplomatic establishment
Not the least of the losers in the ceasefire and release of hostages is the U. S. diplomatic establishment. To echo the words of Samantha Powers they have been admiring the problems in the Middle East rather than solving them for far too long.
