I’d like to throw a question on the floor. A year from now will Tunisia’s experiment in democracy still be under way or will it have failed and why?
I think it will have failed because, as in many if not all countries with Arab Muslim populations many of the people are Islamists and in nascent democracies the most radical few percent hold veto power.
However, I’m willing to be persuaded otherwise and would like to hear the arguments for both sides of the question.
Fail. Mostly for your reasons, but also outside interference.
Steve
Well, yes. Most radical Sunni Islamist organizations receive assistance from the Gulf Arabs, including our pals the Saudis.
Was thinking about it on drive home. Are the Saudis a force for stability anywhere in the world? If they didn’t have the oil, would see them as being the primary evil in the area and not Iran?
Steve
The advantages Tunisia has are:
1. location, in proximity to Europe and on the Mediterranean Sea, which is important for foreign trade and access to Western media. The point would be that Tunisia stuck in Central Asia would have more severe problems.
2. geography, provides fertile lands, mining and some oil (enough, but perhaps not enough for the “oil curse”). Also, lacks the extensive “bedouin backyard” of other Arab States, which is constant source of potential instability.
3. economy, the gdp per capita is $11,623, well above the $3,000 to $6,000 gdp per capita that has historically been necessary to successfully transition to democracy. That is, the economy appears substantial, diverse with a large middle class.
4. demographics, the country is 99% Arabized Berber and Sunni. I wouldn’t argue that such homogeneity is essential, but it reduces the risks of instability.
5. history. The country was ruled by a repressive dictator for decades, and there appears to be at least some unifying consensus that is binding leftists, liberals and Islamisists towards an open society. The Islamisist leadership has been seen as progressive by some, whether it is real or feigned sort of doesn’t matter, since a mask would only be worn if the underlying support didn’t exist.
Tunisia relies on tourism for practically all of its foreign exchange. Recently, terrorist attacks directed at tourists have caused its tourism industry which historically has accounted for 20% of its economy to plummet.
We’ll see what happens. It doesn’t take a lot of terrorists to kill a tourism industry.