Will the Last Person to Leave Illinois Turn Off the Lights?

Over at City Journal Steve Malanga points out some uncomfortable truths about domestic migration:

What is it about blue states that makes people so eager to leave them? That’s a question worth pondering after seeing the results of Gallup’s latest State of the State poll, which, for the first time in eight years, found that more states lean Republican than Democratic. Only 14 states, the survey determined, are either solidly Democratic or trending that way, while in 20 states, the majority of residents are either solidly Republican or leaning right. Gallup deemed the rest toss-ups, with no clear advantage for either party.

The poll revealed other trends. Blue-state residents were far more likely to report that they wished to relocate. Seven of the eight states that residents are keenest to flee are solidly blue—led by Connecticut, where 46 percent of people want to follow the state’s leading employer, GE, to the exits. Also near the top of the list: New Jersey, Illinois, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, and New York. The only state in the Top Eight not predominantly Democratic is Ohio, which Gallup considers “competitive” (neither Republican nor Democratic). Rounding out the Top Ten are Republican-leaning Indiana and Nevada.

What could possibly be inducing people to leave one state for another?

Though demographers offer many reasons for why people move, Gallup focuses on just one: taxes. “Even after controlling for various demographic characteristics including age, gender, race and ethnicity, and education, there is still a strong relationship between total state tax burden and desire to leave one’s current state of residence,” noted Gallup. The polling organization divided the states into five broad categories—or quintiles—of taxation, ranking them from lowest to highest. Six of the ten states where residents were most eager to leave are among the country’s highest-taxed, including New York and New Jersey. A seventh, Illinois, ranks in the second-highest quintile. By contrast, eight states that residents were least interested in leaving were ranked in either the lowest or second-lowest tax quintile. The Gallup survey’s most pointed message for blue states might come from Oregon, one of only two Democratic-leaning jurisdictions that rank with America’s lowest-taxed states—and the Democratic state that residents are least interested in leaving.

A high tax low growth Illinois has very little to offer. It doesn’t have a benign climate or scenic grandeur. It doesn’t have an ocean or mountains. I noted in an article I read recently that only one of the world’s best restaurants (Alinea) is in Chicago. If we could turn homicide into a tourist attraction we’d have it made.

The article doesn’t mention one of the worst aspects of all of the domestic out-migration. Those who leave tend to be the most portable, high income folks who don’t have a problem getting another job. In-migration into these blue paradises on the other hand tends to be of low skill immigrants who pay less in taxes (to the extent that they pay taxes at all) and are higher cost because they need more in the way of social services. In other words, the tax base of these states is shrinking even as the demand for more spending rises.