Let’s engage in a little speculative exercise, building on the groundwork laid by my earlier post this morning. Let’s assume arguendo that Republicans take control of both houses of Congress by narrow margins, a fairly likely outcome as things stand today. How will President Obama react? How will his strategies change?
That’s the subject of a New York Times article from last Friday. The authors consider two alternatives:
Much will depend on the election results, and advisers to Mr. Obama insist that for now at least, they are singularly focused on keeping Democrats in the majority. But there are two basic outcomes for Mr. Obama if Republicans gain a majority in one or both chambers.
The first is legislative gridlock. Mr. Obama is already having trouble ending tax cuts for the wealthy, and that is with Democrats still in charge. If Republicans take control and try to undo his health care bill, or start peppering the White House with subpoenas, the president might well dig in his heels, and the partisan warfare will only worsen.
Alternatively, the capital could see legislative compromise. The second half of Mr. Obama’s first term could look much like the second half of President Bill Clinton’s first term, when Mr. Clinton separated himself from Congressional Democrats while moving toward the center in search of compromise with Republicans. While some Democrats scoff at this idea, the so-called triangulation strategy, and insist Republicans will not cooperate, others say the notion is not so far-fetched.
If Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress, will President Obama triangulate?
In my view that is extremely unlikely. To date the president’s approach has routinely been one of “doubling down”, essentially the diametric opposite of a major course correction. Unless I am very much mistaken during his political career he has never been confronted with the situation in which he was a member of the minority party. My guess is that he’s going to keep doing what’s been working for him and continue to act as though his party still held its majority.
I note, too, that those coming into the White House (e.g. Elizabeth Warren) are more progressive in their views than those leaving or rumored to be leaving (e.g. Peter Orszag, Larry Summers, James L. Jones).
Fasten your seatbelts. We may be in for a bumpy ride.
What say ye?
I think it’s unlikely the Republicans capture both houses. But should that happen, I have no doubt Obama will “triangulate.” First, he’ll have to if he wants to get anything done – and history shows that he wants to get things done, in appearances at least. Second, his most controversial domestic priorities have already been passed (ACA, financial) or killed (climate change). His remaining ones, especially education reform, are in areas where he can work with the opposition. With regard to foreign policy and surveillance he’s basically embraced the Republican position whole-hog.
Finally, even though Republicans think he’s insincere about it, compromise is an important part of his brand, especially towards independent voters. He’s got an election to win and the voters he needs care about that part of the brand.
I think there are several considerations. First, if the Republicans take both houses of Congress (unlikely IMO) it will be the most conservative (in some senses) in memory and, since fiscal issues (delusional as their views may be) are front and center for many of them. It will be the most cohesive freshman class in memory. Not the stuff of which compromise is made.
Second, will triangulation regain the support of moderates and centrists for the president? I honestly don’t know.
Third, if he triangulates he’s all but certain to face serious primary challenges within his own party. With the national situation looking ever more like Chicago-style racial politics, he’ll lose some important primaries. It’s a tough situation.
First, if the Republicans take both houses of Congress (unlikely IMO) it will be the most conservative (in some senses) in memory and, since fiscal issues (delusional as their views may be) are front and center for many of them.
Maybe. It really depends on the proportions though. Even in the House I think the Republicans will be hard-pressed to obtain much more than a 20-seat advantage. And I suspect that on some issues at least, the administration will be able to find 21 House Republicans they can work with. Plus as we all know, the shift from candidate to incumbent changes the incentives for many politicians.
Frankly, triangulation will work to attract the support of moderates if it is seen as successful – i.e., if the labor market improves. But unless they nominate Romney or some hitherto unidentified person, the Republican candidate is going to have all kinds of trouble attracting moderates to begin with.
Similarly, I think a serious primary challenge is only likely if the economy remains busted (which is a distinct possibility). Otherwise it doesn’t matter if Obama triangulates. Clinton faced no serious primary opponents in 1996.