China permabear Gordon Chang warns that China is serious in his post at National Interest:
In these days of Chinese expansionism, however, every sovereignty dispute has become a Taiwan—in other words, a do-or-die matter for the Communist Party. Tellingly, China has not been able to compromise a land border since settling with Tajikistan at the beginning of this decade. With regard to sea claims, the most it has been able to do during this period was confirm it did not claim Indonesia’s Natuna Islands (although it still, without justification, claims rights to the Exclusive Economic Zone generated by the Natunas).
Beijing’s intransigence has worked, and Chinese policymakers, taking advantage of foreign timidity, have then expanded territorial demands. The escalation of ambitions after China seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012 highlights a dangerous dynamic in the Chinese capital.
In the spring of that year, Washington brokered an agreement between Beijing and Manila for both sides to withdraw their small vessels from the strategic feature, close to the main Philippine island of Luzon. Only Manila complied with the deal, leaving China in control. The Obama administration, despite the blatant deception, did not enforce the agreement it had arranged, undoubtedly hoping to avoid confrontation with China.
By doing nothing, however, the United States handed an easy win to the worst elements in Beijing. Those elements then ramped up pressure on Second Thomas Shoal, another Philippine reef in the South China Sea, and the Senkakus, uninhabited islets under Japanese administration in the East China Sea.
Will China invade Taiwan? I don’t know but IMO it would be a tragedy for the world but especially for China. The rest of the world, particularly China’s neighbors, might not intervene but they would certainly react and their reactions would not be in a positive direction for China. It would mark the end of China’s economic expansion and a return to the bad old days before 1979.
And that doesn’t even consider how the U. S. would respond. Keep in mind who the president and his national security advisor are.
It would be a useful exercise to list the similarities vs differences between Taiwan and the Ukraine to understand what could happen.
It is good idea for the US government to be clear to Taiwan about the benefits of strategic ambiguity, not give false impressions and inspire rash actions like Ukraine. On the other hand, the US needs to be firm with the Chinese government that it has strategic interests in Taiwan unlike the Ukraine (TSMC).
I worry that they may feel forced to try. That means encouraging dialog between the two without us deliberately provoking China in the eye. This is a very sensitive topic for them.
I don’t think Xi Jinping will try under current circumstances; that might change if the domestic situation turns against him.
The US has absolutely no strategic interests in Taiwan, and both the Chinese and Taiwanese know it. If China invades we will make offended noises and do nothing. China has the factories and skilled workers, and if we impose embargoes our store shelves are empty, our assembly plants shut down, and most of out major companies go bankrupt.
However, it is almost certain China can make an offer to Taiwan’s Ruling Class that they will accept: remain as local rulers, but accept Chinese guidance. So, no invasion, no embargo.
Our delusional free traders, and especially our supertitious, economically illiterate economists (eg, Krugman) have deindustrialized our country and left it helpless before our enemies. Now that Trump has been neutralized, we have no future.
Consider the following; all CPU’s inside IPhones come from Taiwan, all the GPU’s from Nvidia; that powers everything from AI research, crytocurrency, to PC gaming, comes from Taiwan, a big chunk of the RAM and SSD’s that Micron (one of 3 firms left in that industry) makes comes from Taiwan.
It would interesting to figure out how many Pentagon systems contain parts from Taiwan.
IMO we should have a significantly greater presence in memories and ICs generally for just that reason.
This has been a concern in the government for a while. I don’t think I can name them, but there are several brands and manufacturers that the Defense Department won’t buy from because of untrustworthy hardware or firmware.