There’s one thing that I don’t think that Fred Bauer recognizes in his op-ed about Congressional redistricting at the Washington Post:
While the GOP might temporarily benefit from a fresh round of redistricting, Republicans from a handful of Democratic trifecta states (such as California) might be more vulnerable, and some centrist Republican House members have expressed uncertainty about escalating the war. The mixed incentives of various factions (Democrats to block Republican gerrymanders, and tipping-point Republicans to save themselves in Democratic states) could theoretically give Kiley’s bill a path to passage, though it would face a steep climb if it were to survive the House. If the president opposed the bill, it would almost certainly fail to get the 60 votes needed in the Senate. And the president surely will oppose it if he sees it as blocking redistricting that would help Republicans.
However, maybe the deadlock over redistricting could be an opening for bigger reforms. Few observers see the House as a well-functioning body. The loss of swing districts has made it increasingly sclerotic and internally polarized. The average size of congressional districts is nearing 800,000 residents, distancing members of the supposed people’s house from the people.
The tensions over redistricting could help forge a deal to resolve some of the underlying drivers of this legislative dysfunction. Congress could not only ban future mid-decade redistricting in a reapportionment package but also expand the House. This would allow for a one-time round of redistricting leading up to the midterms and give everyone — from California to Texas — another bite at the apple before the 2030 Census.
I can’t imagine any sitting Congresman voting to reduce his or her own perceived influence or the likelihood of she or he being re-elected. From their points of view that’s no compromise—it’s a suicide pact.
For the reasons Mr. Bauer provides I think it’s unlikely that Congress will act to stop states from doing midterm redistricting but that’s the most I would expect from Congress.
