At Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Kyle Kondik explains why the Republicans are likely to maintain their control of the Senate following the 2020 elections:
We would be lying if we said we had a great sense as to how the Democrats’ drive to impeach Trump will impact the elections next year. There are just too many variables and moving pieces to feel strongly about it. But the potential for the battle to harden partisan attitudes may have down-ballot effects for some members of Congress, as noted above.
But don’t be surprised if, for all the noise, the impeachment inquiry — and even a successful House vote for impeachment and subsequent Senate trial — does not lead to sharp changes in public attitudes. It is true from limited polling that, at the very least, Democrats are coalescing around impeachment after the revelation of the now-famous telephone readout between Trump and the Ukrainian president. What seems to be happening is that Democrats are taking their cues from party leadership, which has resisted calling for impeachment until now, and increasing their own support for impeachment as a result. There has been some movement in favor of impeachment among independents and Republicans, although one would have to cherry-pick data to argue that overall support for impeaching and removing the president is significantly more than mixed.
Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating — as it seems to do — has remained largely fixed where it’s been, in the low-to-mid 40s, with disapproval over 50%. Could the Ukraine bombshell and subsequent discoveries from the impeachment process cause it to dip over time? Sure.
But after years of observing the president’s durability in polls, thanks in large part to strong GOP support, it’s safer to expect continuity as opposed to change in the president’s standing.
Read the whole thing. The map is on the Republicans’ side.
You write about a “Ukraine bombshell,†while others view this latest Trump trial as a Ukraine fabrication. These two perspectives, if nothing more is revealed or added to said bombshell, will carry over into a polarized, angry electorate going to the polls with the sole intent to vote the opposition out of government.
Kyle Kondik writes about a “Ukraine bombshell”. I quoted him.
As of this morning, Joe Biden is refusing to talk about Ukraine, deflecting to comments about Trump’s madness. Won’t go away.
China questions are coming, denial, denial, denial. As I said earlier, Biden did not break the law as it’s written. But dirty looks dirty and denial of knowledge won’t cut it.
Shouldn’t Trump also be held to that standard? With all of the foreign dignitaries and business people staying at Trump hotels, and bragging about it to Trump to make sure he knows, Trump naming his own resort as the site for a conference, etc ?
On topic, I dont see much happening that will change voting for the Senate. Even if they have Trump on tape doing something so awful some Republicans voted against him, it would still leave intact the conservative media that helped beget Trump and promo-Trump (Palin) so votes won’t change much.
Steve
Steve
HotelGate.
Again.
Desperation.
Well,yes but did someone receive something of value in return from Trump or, were they simply proffering favor. Common in many countries.
IMHO, This might require revising the law re foreign policy, encompassing the past administration as well.
HotelGate
Again
Being prevented from any kind of investigation or oversight.
Fact: Trump’s wealth has decreased since taking office.
Fact: Trump donates his presidential salary to charities.
Fact: Trump’s family has not inked any foreign deals since taking office.
Fact: Trump’s hotels are located all over the world, are elegant and often located near golf courses – factors that would naturally attract foreign dignitaries and business people. Also, one controversial military contract negotiated with a Trump hotel was made before he took office, at a rate lower than competing hotels.
Comparing the huge financial gains, made on the side, by Biden’s family with Trump is ludicrous.