With his characteristic analytic rigor Tomas Pueyo considers why Israel is attacking Iran now rather than earlier or later:
Israel attacked Iran because it believed Iran was close to getting a nuclear weapon, and that threatened Israel’s existence.
But why does Iran want to eliminate Israel?
Was it close to developing a nuclear weapon?
Why did Israel attack now? Why not earlier or later?
Was there any other way?
What does all this say about the outcome of the war?
After a detailed account of the actions of the Shah, he summarizes:
This is not an exhaustive list, but you can see the pattern: An elitist, pro-Western, anti-Islamic leader, propped up by the US, initially succeeded in modernizing the economy, but hit some roadblocks and didn’t act decisively, letting the opposition take over.
That is followed by an analysis of the anti-U. S. stance of the present regime, the anti-Israel stance of the present regime, and whether Iran has been developing a nuclear weapon. Here’s his summary of that:
So Was Iran pursuing an actual bomb? Well:
- It was opening another enrichment sites in an undisclosed place
- It was likely hiding three more nuclear sites
- It had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 bombs, which is not for nuclear energy
- It was accelerating its uranium enrichment
- It was uncooperative with the IAEA
- It was developed a form of metallic uranium that is only useful for nuclear bombs
which comports with my view. He characterizes the U. S. view as “naive”. He concludes by speculating that Israel attacked now because a) it was ready and b) its intelligence assets within Iran were receiving increased scrutiny.
I encourage you to read the whole thing.
I have only one conjecture to add. One of the things that might have affected the apparent lack of readiness of Iran’s air defenses is the large number of air force officers who were murdered in the early years of the mullahocracy. They numbered in the hundreds or even thousands. Those are the men who would have been responsible for formulating Iran’s air defense posture and those who replaced them were not as capable or well-trained.
In addition to what’s mentioned, a major factor was that Iran’s allies and proxies were gone or no longer a threat. Operationally, the timing was ideal. It meant that Iran’s only way to strike back was via ballistic missiles.
Andy, he does mention that in the body of his post. It’s just not in snippets I quoted. See here:
In trying to explain Iran’s genocidal statements, I think he leans too hard into religious essentialism. At least to some degree the antisemitic statements are performative. Iran is a revolutionary state seeking to export influence in a Middle East that is primarily Sunni Arab. The stance that we hate the Jews more than anyone and are doing more about it than your leaders is intended for the Arab Street. It creates common ground with non Shi’ite groups like Hamas. It delegalizes Arab states for complacency at best, corruption at worse. The hostility to Arab leadership engendered by Iran probably led to Israeli-Arab rapprochement. Would a nuclear Iran only set its sights on Israel?
I don’t know if the Iranian government is going to collapse, but if it does, it’s more likely that the new regime will cork the anti-Israel rhetoric. The Iranians chanting “Death to Palestine” in the streets probably do not want any Palestinians to die, just for their government to stop spending so much money on foreign adventures.
Agree that the timing was right, though as always domestic politics is important and if Bibi becomes a war hero it makes much less likely that he ever answers for the incompetence that let 10/7 happen to begin with.
Your explanation about the air force may hold some water but its AFACIT a near pan-ME issue. My guess would actually be that being a pilot is prestigious and the positions are passed out based upon prestige/membership in ruling class. However, that also has been true to some extent, again AFAICT, for other air forces that were actually competent. Also, it is my understanding that a lot of the training is actually done by foreign contractors. Also, I think they were relying heavily upon the S300-400s.
Steve