I could never be a diplomat. Some things which seem to make sense to diplomats just don’t make any sense to me at all. Well, maybe they don’t make any sense to some diplomats, too. From The Diplomad:
OK, we can understand why Russia got into the club, i.e., some years ago when there was great promise that Russia could become both a democratic and free market country, inviting it to the then-G-7 made sense — perhaps. But let’s face it, Russia was never the right number 8 country for any objective reason. The 7 biggest GNPs in the world are: The USA, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy. 8-10 are Spain, China (hard to tell exactly), and probably India. Russia is maybe 11, although high oil prices might make it move up a notch this year.
Take a look at the following chart:
United States
11,000,000,000,000
37,800
United Kingdom
1,666,000,000,000
27,700
France
1,661,000,000,000
27,600
Germany
2,271,000,000,000
27,600
Canada
958,700,000,000
29,800
Japan
3,582,000,000,000
28,200
Italy
1,550,000,000,000
26,700
Russia
1,282,000,000,000
8,900
Brazil
1,375,000,000,000
7,600
China
6,449,000,000,000
5,000
India
3,033,000,000,000
2,900
Spain
885,500,000,000
22,000
Mexico
941,200,000,000
9,000
Okay. Now, ignoring the first column just look at the first seven rows. Which of these is different than the others? The answer is obvious: the first row. Remember that when you hear anyone saying that the United States should be negotiating with other nations from a position as an equal. Like it or not that’s just not true. Oh, and those first seven rows are the G7 countries by the way.
Now, ignoring the first column again, look at the first eight rows. Which of these is different than the others? The answer is a little less obvious since that first row is still an outlier. But there’s still a pretty obvious answer: the eighth row. Surprise! That row belongs to Russia.
Now compare rows 8, 9, 12, and 13 and remember that the G8 is putatively a trade organization and not a military organization. Why does row 8 belong with rows 1 through 7 and neither rows 9, 12, nor 13? This just doesn’t make any sense to me at all.
I did everything you said and it guessed my birthday correctly! Thanks!
No sense? Have you forgotten that diplomacy is the art of saying “Nice doggy” while looking for a big stick?
I don’t like your (the CIAs) figures. They use
“purchasing power parity” to adjust the size
of the economies for local prices. This gives
a better measure of the “standard of living,”
in a country, but a much poorer measure of the
(international) value of goods and services
that an economy produces. In particular, it
inflates the GDPs of countries like Russia,
which has low prices for many basic goods and
services.
The numbers (from Bloomberg – the top provider
of data for financial professionals, especially
traders) in billions of U.S. dollars:
U.S. 11004.05
Japan 4296.19
Germany 2406.32
U.K. 1797.64
France 1762.19
Italy 1470.93
China 1412.33
Canada 869.90
Spain 842.08
Mexico 626.08
South Korea 605.35
India 579.74
Netherlands 513.64
Australia 508.53
Brazil 492.26
Russia 432.80
Thanks for dropping by, Anon. Another really great source for these kinds of number is the World Bank.
My basic point is just as well supported by your figures as by the ones I originally cited: once you get beyond the G-7 it’s hard to rationalize including Russia without also including the rest of the nations in your list in the club. And, of course, the U. S. economy is nearly the size of the rest of the G-7 put together.
The World Bank produces the “purchasing power parity”
numbers (which involves some subjectivity for things
like selecting a “market basket” of goods to use as a
benchmark for the price adjustments). Also, many of
the economic series they produce use archaic data
(using the exchange rates as of 1995, as an example).
I agree that a country’s influence should (roughly)
come from its economic resources (countries with small
economies and big military resources always seem
especially troublesome).
That said, Russia might deserve (a little) extra
consideration (as in the “keep your friends close and
your enemies closer” type). They have a huge cache of
nuclear material, which we need to make sure remain
secure. They represent an important (and potentially
more stable) source of oil and gas. Russia borders (I
believe) fourteen countries (many quite volatile)
which (if no conflicts exist there) can go a long way
toward a more peaceful world. Finally (and probably
most important), I know the Russian psychology, and
basically, you just get a lot more cooperation from
them by kissing up to them and trying to make them
feel important.
So, does Russia belong in the G-8? No, but I don’t
think that throwing them out advances our interests.
I would probably prefer inviting more countries
(especially China) to join the group.
By the way, this year, higher oil prices and the
appreciation of the ruble will give Russia a GDP of
about 550 billion dollars – moving it up three places
on the list.