Why Did the CBO Change Its Mortality Projections?

October 8, 2013

Buried in a footnote to his post on the possibility of using Social Security reforms as a lever for breaking the impasse over the budget (and the debt ceiling), Bruce Krasting makes an interesting observation:

The “Non Partisan” CBO did not have to make dramatic changes to its mortality assumptions in September of 2013. The 5/13 SS Report to Congress did not have changes in its mortality rates, but CBO did. Why?

That’s an excellent question. Mr. Krasting suggests political motivations. I’d be interested in some alternative but none occurs to me. I’m not even sure how I’d go about finding out.

Here’s the CBO’s explanation. Does that actually answers the question. Why now?

2 comments… add one
  • Red Barchetta Link

    Inflation rate………unemployment rate……ObamaCare signups….mortality assumptions…………

    Any wonder zerohedge has a running rant against any government data?

    But nobody is mad as hell (after all, the tax freight and incidence of other policy mal-results is born increasingly by the few) and they ARE going to continue to take it. I’ll leave readers to decide where.

    Speaking of the minority. Wasn’t that a prime directive of government and law, to protect the minority from mob rule? We are on the verge of mob rule. Obama incites it each and every pronouncement.

  • Andy Link

    Why now? Does it matter?

    After reading their explanation I think they made the correct adjustment, in particular this:

    CBO chose to take a simpler approach—extrapolating from past trends without adjustment—for a few reasons. First, a number of past factors (such as improvements in medical technology, environmental conditions, and health behaviors) have had as significant an impact on mortality rates as smoking has. Second, there is great uncertainty about how such factors will affect mortality in the future. Projecting a continuation of past improvement requires no subjective judgments about the roles that specific changes will play. That approach implies that although a great deal of uncertainty exists about the impact of the many factors that will influence mortality, the effects on mortality of future changes in those factors will be such that mortality rates will continue to decline at their long-term average pace.

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