Sean Trende summarizes his analysis in RealClearPolitics of the effects of a declining presidential approval rating in his concluding paragraph:
Regardless, the decline in Biden’s job approval is consequential. Right now, he is probably sitting just below the “Mendoza line†that would represent a “normal†midterm, with perhaps no Senate losses and low double-digit House losses. If the president rebounds, Democrats will have a successful 2022, even if they narrowly lose the House. If he declines much further, however, it could turn into an ugly rout.
There are lots of facts, figures, and charts to back up his observations.
15 months is an eternity in politics and a lot can happen between now and November 2022. The only districts in which good intentions or trying very, very hard are likely to help them very much are those they’re going to carry regardless. If inflation continues to transit over the next 15 months the unewelcomely slow economic growth projected by the Atlanta Federal Reserve, as pointed out by a frequent commenter, will probably affect President Biden’s popularity his handling of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan or any foreign policy news.
Historically, as Mr. Trended documents, the parties of sitting presidents have tended to lose a dozen or more seats in the election after the start of his first term. With such a narrow House margin that could be significant.
Random observations.
With Trump in 2017; Obama in 2010; the portents were in the special election upsets in Alabama/Mass.
There are 3 Gov races coming up; 1 in Sept and 2 in Nov. Polling shows Democrats holding all 3; in the case of California, practically at the same margin as in 2018. So no sign the Biden’s rating is burdening other Democrats. How much to trust the polls is an open question.
Today’s lackluster job report definitely matches the sharp slowdown in growth that we have been discussing; but it is one month and reports are very volatile.
The concern is on the production side. As an example, GM is not America, but they are projecting to decrease production by 10+% in 2021 compared to 2020 and will make less cars in H2 compared to H1. And this replicated throughout the auto sector. GM is making up for it due to higher margins from the car shortage. That’s not a sustainable mix for adding workers…
Some more observations — to the point; does Joe Biden care about his popularity, or that of fellow Democrats. For that matter, Nancy Pelosi?
Biden is 82 in 2024, his own campaign openly suggested he was only serving one term. He markets the administration as “Biden-Harris”.
Similarly, Pelosi is 81; promised this is her last term as Speaker (through no one seems to take it seriously). Biden also has insurance, even if midterms turn disastrous for Democrats, what are Republicans going to do; impeach him and have Harris as President?
I bet Biden and Pelosi view the human infrastructure bill as their legacy. Like Obamacare, once enacted, it will be impossible for Republicans to repeal.
And one note of caution for Republicans; gaining one house of Congress (the most probable outcome with todays polls) is a poisoned chalice. Look at 2010, 2018, where the party out of power managed to regain only the House. The subsequent congress will be only remembered for (a) debt ceiling debacles (b) government shutdowns (c) impeachments (d) mismanagement of COVID.
You’ve got it wrong. They’ll impeach Harris first, then Biden.
You can’t just throw that out there.
Harris is untouchable, the only thing that would strengthen her armor at this point is if she should suddenly discover she’s a lesbian.